Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (European Package)

OVERVIEW
Wow, was that Ryder Cup exciting or what? I think I’m still amped up from the opening pairing of Reed & McIlroy, or maybe it’s the residual effect of the Phil & Sergio pairing. Either way, it was a lot of fun to watch regardless of who you were cheering for (I had monetary interest in the Euros and heart felt interest in Team America so it was basically a tilt fest for me). Now we’re back to the DFS grind on the Euro Tour and we’ve got a dandy of a tournament this week. The event is somewhat similar to the PGA Tour’s version of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (it’s something to consider this week as the pros will be teeing it up with celebs throughout the first three days and hopefully they can avoid any errant tee shots directly at spectators this time around) in that they will be playing three different courses through the first three days with the finale being played at St. Andrews on Sunday. Just a reminder, regardless of where I have a player listed or in however much detail, unless I say otherwise I like them as a play. If there’s a lot of detail on them it doesn’t mean that I like them more than others, it’s just how I chose to write them up. Finally, we’re heading into the home stretch of the Race to Dubai and like the FedEx Cup Championship players are jockeying to make runs at the leader, Danny Willett. Rafa, Louis, Branden Grace (who didn’t make the article, but I do like this week I just couldn’t decide as to how to write him up.) Alex Noren, Tyrrell Hatton and Lee Westwood round out the Top 10 in the Race to Dubai standings – just something to keep in mind.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND
o The Courses
• Old Course at St. Andrews / Carnoustie / Kingsbarn Golf Links (one round at each, final round at St. Andrews)
• Par: 72 (all 3 courses)
• Yardage: St. Andrews = 7,307 yards, Carnoustie = 7,345 yards, Kingsbarn Golf Links = 7,227 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass
o Location: Scotland, United Kingdom
o Expected scoring: I think we’ll see the winner near -20, and players who plan on contending will need to shoot 65 or better at Kingsbarn if they plan on winning this event.
o Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2015: Thorbjorn Olesen -18 over Brooks Koepka & Chris Stroud [-16]
• 2014: Oliver Wilson -17 over Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy, Richie Ramsay [-16]
• 2013: David Howell -23 in a playoff over Peter Uihlein
• 2012: Branden Grace -22 over Thorbjorn Olesen [-20]
• 2011 Michael Hoey -22 over Rory McIlroy [-20]
• 2010: Martin Kaymer -17 over Danny Willett [-14]

KEY STATS TO TARGET
o Strong Emphasis – Driving Distance, Greens in Regulation, Putts per GIR
o Important – Course History, Current Form, Ball Striking, Scrambling

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STARS:

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $11,200)
• Course History: 6th – MC – MC – 5th – MC – 40th – MC – MC
• Form: 17th – 8th – 18th – 17th – 22nd – MC – 21st
• Stats: 71.00 – Scoring Avg, 61.79% – DA, 298.80 yards – DD, 74.17% – GIR
• Other – King Louis avoided the injuries that have plagued him constantly this year and that’s something to consider this week when building both cash & GPP lineups. Most people will look at his course history this week and be shocked to see how many times he’s missed the cut here, but I’m looking at this week as a fresh finish to his year as he’s been solid at St. Andrews over his career (this is where he won his only major championship). If the missed cuts scare you for cash games, make sure you get a piece of him in GPPs this week.

Thomas Pieters (DK $10,900)
• Course History: MC – 18th
• Form: 57th – WIN – 2nd – 4th – 86th – 30th 29th
• Stats: 70.51 – Scoring Avg, 55.86% – DA, 301.42 yards – DD, 68.69% GIR
• Other – Pieters looks to build off his impressive performance in his Ryder Cup debut this week. His form has been solid for the past two months (three top 5’s and a bee sting) and he possesses the length off the tee that’s needed in order to setup short approach shots to the greens. The key for him this week will be to keep the ball in play and out of the bunkers/thick rough. My only concern here would be fatigue from playing as many rounds of golf as he did last week, but he’s a young buck and should be able to bounce back after a couple days of rest.

Danny Willett (DK $10,500)
• Course History: 52nd – MC – MC – 5th – 27th – 2nd – 42nd
• Form: 2nd – 12th – 37th – 79th – 53rd – MC
• Stats: 70.33 – Scoring Avg, 58.20% – DA, 290.06 yards – DD, 72.99% – GIR
• Other – I strongly believe Danny felt the pressure of his brother’s comments prior to the beginning of the Ryder Cup and heard the repercussions of those words all week thus rattling him to zero points scored and plenty of time on the bench last week. Danny has played well in this event over the course of his career and as well as finishing T6 in the Open Championship in 2015. Look for Danny Boy to rebound this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Bernd Weisberger (DK $10,800) might be one of the hottest golfers coming in and has excellent course history at this event (4th – 14th – 12th – MC – MC). The time off in-between starts is a slight concern as you never want to interrupt solid play with time off, but he did manage to back up his 2nd place finish with a 5th at the Porsche. Martin Kaymer (DK $10,600) looks to be a solid cash game play this week as he’s only missed one cut at this event in eight tries. Included in those appearances is a win, a 2nd and a 7th place finish and being a good/smart links player is to his advantage this week. Tommy Fleetwood (DK $9,700) really came on late in the year finishing 10th, 7th and 13th in his last three events and has finished in the Top 5 three out of five tries here. I don’t think I can trust him for cash games, but love the upside he provides for GPPs and has the type of game that translates to success specifically at The Old Course.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Lee Westwood (DK $8,400)
• Course History: MC – 30th – 11th – 9th – 8th – MC – 8th
• Form: MC – 4th – 27th – 85th – 22nd – 11th
• Stats: 71.34 – Scoring Avg, 60.26% – DA, 290.16 yards – DD, 65.69% – GIR
• Other – Westy struggled mightily the first day of the Ryder Cup, but he’s back on home soil and even though his putting woes were on display for all to see this past week, I think he gets back to his comfort zone. Westy hasn’t shown a whole lot of upside lately so I’d reserve him for cash games only this week. It’s also worth noting that last year was the first time he played in this event since 2011, so I’m not putting too much stock in that final result.

Alejandro Canizares (DK $7,500)
• Tournament History: 43rd – 51st – 24th – 34th – 53rd – 48th – MC – 60th – 36th – 38th
• Form: MC – 7th – 4th – 24th – 8th – 45th – MC
• Stats: 70.98 – Scoring Avg, 60.63% – DA, 274.66 yards – DD, 63.28% – GIR
• Other – Alejandro has plenty of course history to get a sense that he plays well here. The finishing places aren’t the best, but this is what we need in order to get as many players through the cut as possible to cash in both cash games and GPPs. He’ll be a core play for me this week and might have slightly lower ownership due to his missed cut at the Porsche following four great events.

ALSO CONSIDER – Richard Bland (DK $8,200) continuing to make cuts and provide upside, Bland should get another ownership bump this week following his 7th place finish at the Porsche. I’m hesitant this week, only because of the increase I expect for GPP’s this week, but he makes an excellent cash game play (or fade outright if you think he’ll fall flat).It’d be silly to ignore the defending champion Thorbjorn Olesen (DK $7,600) especially since he’s priced as a value play. His win last year and runner up finish in 2012 are his only good finishes here, so I wouldn’t expect another Top 5, but his three consecutive missed cuts may have people avoiding him this week and makes for a decent GPP play. Make sure you play David Lipsky (DK $7,300) in at least one GPP lineup this week. I have one of those gut feelings about him this week, very similar to Daniel Im at the Porsche (finished 9th). Lucas Bjerregaard (DK $7,000) bombs it off the tee and even though he was unable to hang onto his fast start at the Porsche, I think he’ll fair well here. Lucas has minimal course history and those that don’t know how far he hits it off the tee will probably look elsewhere, so you should consider him as a core for GPP’s this week as he’s only missed one cut in the last three and a half months.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Padraig Harrington (DK $6,800)
• Tournament History: MC – 18th – 40th – 29th – 8th – 17th – 26th – 13th – 8th – WIN
• Form: MC – MC – 21st – 64th – 13th – 36th – 21st – 30th – 9th
• Stats: 70.82 – Scoring Avg, 56.76% DA, 285.16 yards – DD, 62.85% GIR
• Other – Ok, he’s got to play well this week right? Coming back to familiar grounds should put him in a good place this week and maybe seeing fellow shamrock Rory McIlroy at the Ryder Cup will inspire some good play out of Paddy. He should see really low ownership based on back to back missed cuts, but he’s a very sound veteran player who really just needs to stay out of his own way. It’s been ages since his win here, but he should make the cut and give us Top 30 upside this week.

Magnus A Carlsson (DK $6,700)
• Tournament History: 38th – 32nd – 35th – 13th – MC – 5th
• Form: 13th – 68th – MC – 29th – MC – 32nd – 29th – 38th
• Stats: 71.36 – Scoring Avg, 57.45% – DA, 284.20 yards – DD, 71.31% – GIR
• Other – We jumped back on the Magnus Express last time out and were rewarded greatly with a 13th place finish so it shouldn’t be a surprise that we’re getting our boarding passes again here. Obviously its tough to consider him for cash games, but if you’re looking to go stars & scrubs in cash, he’s a “scrub” you’ll want considering he’s only missed one cut in six appearances and is crushing the greens in regulation statistic.

Kristoffer Broberg (DK $6,600)
• Tournament History: 38th – WD – MC – MC
• Form: WD – 40th – 64th – MC – MC
• Stats: 73.41 – Scoring Avg, 52.03% – DA, 287.47 yards – DD, 60.02% – GIR
• Other – Broberg has been battling issues all year, so I wouldn’t consider him a salary relief option in cash games this week, but I think he’s worth considering for GPP’s especially because of his lack of form and ability to mash the ball off the tee. I know it’s tough to put too much confidence in him at this point, but he’s worth a dart throw and about 8-10% of your GPP teams this week in the event he can play all four days.

ALSO CONSIDER – Peter Uihlein (DK $6,600) finally has some additional rounds under his belt and has played very well here in the past (MC – 18th – 2nd). He, like Pieters, had high expectations coming in to this year, but was sidelined for an extensive period of time due to wrist surgery. I think enough time has passed where he should be pretty close to grooving it again. If you’re looking to throw a dart at someone, I’d look at Jaco Ahlers (DK $6,300). He’s long off the tee (299 yards) and hits over 65% of greens in regulation. I’m sure there will be no ownership to speak of, and South Africans have had success at this event in the past.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK $10,100)
• Course History: MC – MC – MC – MC – 30th – MC – 4th
• Form: 12th – 5th – 5th – 49th – 39th – 21st – 4th
• Stats: 70.41 – Scoring Avg, 58.97% – DA, 284.15 yards – DD, 75.78% – GIR
• Other – I really hope I’m right on thinking that people will fade him this week coming off the Ryder Cup (where he was almost as good as Pieters and should’ve been selected in the afternoon four-ball on Saturday after he and Sergio came back from a 4 & 6 deficit to halve the match). RCB is exactly what we want in GPP plays – a scoring machine. He’s a “quiet bomber” that excels in ball striking and can putt the lights out when he gets hot. Don’t fade Rafa this week even if those missed cuts scare you; don’t do it (he’s much more talented at this stage in his career than he’s ever been).

Chris Hanson (DK $6,400)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: MC – 20th – 8th – 18th – 76th – MC
• Stats: 71.75 – Scoring Avg, 58.94% – DA, 291.33 yards – DD, 67.16% – GIR
• Other – Hanson killed me last time out, but I have too much of a DFS man crush on him to hold grudges. He’s cheap and outside of a few untimely missed cuts, has been very solid at his price. People will look at his 76th place finish in the event after his last missed cut as a negative, which is exactly why we’ll be targeting him this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – I wouldn’t fade Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,300) or Andrew Johnston (DK $8,900) this week in GPP’s. Fitzy is coming off a zero point effort in the Ryder Cup, but was outplayed in pretty much every match this past week. He did start to gain some steam towards the end of his Sunday single match, but at that point it was too late. Beef on the other hand, just gained his PGA Tour card via Web.com finals and should continue to play against basically the same field strength where birdies are needed in order to contend. There’s something intriguing about playing Chris Stroud (DK $6,900) at this price in this field this week. Yes, it has a lot to do with his 2nd place finish last year, but he’s been priced in this range or even higher in stronger fields so we’re taking advantage of a pricing error by playing him this week. The amount of course history is less than ideal, but Euro Tour punter (bettor) Ben Coley also tipped him this week as a long shot Top 10 play so that makes me feel more confident in such a small sample. The same goes for Joakim Lagergren (DK $6,300) who’s looking to build off of his 4th place finish last year. His form isn’t terrible (63rd – 53rd – 20th – MC – 5th) so I’m willing to give him a shot since I assume a lot of people will be on Nino Bertasio at $200 more.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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