Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Alfred Dunhill (European Package)

OVERVIEW

Welcome back to the European Tour! That was an enjoyable break, I hope you didn’t get too rusty in your lineup construction ways. All jokes aside, I’m happy we have some Euro contests to play this week, but of course DraftKings missed the memo on making larger prize pools. So we’ll just have to take whatever small purses we can get at this point. This week we head back to South Africa where many natives have had success in the past, primarily defending champion & FIVE time winner Charl Schwartzel leads the way as the favorite. As you’ll notice below he has quite the history here and has some form coming in, so fading him will be the ultimate test in GPP’s this week. There’s also a lot of players from the Sunshine Tour in this event that I’m not 100% familiar with so the analysis will be strictly stats driven as I’ve never seen them play a shot before, but it’s safe to say picking South Africans may be the play this week. Onto the picks!

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Leopard Creek GC
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 6,951
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Location: Malelane, South Africa
• Expected scoring: I’d expect to see the winner at -16 or better this week. There have been a few outlier instances where the winner was -20 or better, but the median score of -16 should be enough to get it done.   
• Past Champions (dating back to 2010):
• 2015: Charl Schwartzel (4x) -15 over Gregory Bourdy [-11]
• 2014: Branden Grace -20 over Louis Oosthuizen [-13]
• 2013: Charl Schwartzel (3x) -17 over Richard Finch [-13]
• 2012: Charl Schwartzel (2x) -24 over Kristoffer Broberg [-12]
• 2011 Garth Mulroy -19 over George Murray [-17]
• 2010: Pablo Martin (2x) -11 over Anthony Michael, Thorbjorn Olesen, Charl Schwartzel [-9]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Driving Distance, Greens in Regulation
• Important – Course History, Current Form, South African descent

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STARS:

Charl Schwartzel (DK $12,000)

• Course History: Win – 26^th – Win – Win – 2^nd – 2^nd – 14^th – MC – 2^nd – Win – Win
• Form: 3^rd – 39^th – 30^th
• Stats:50 – Scoring Avg, 50.60% – DA, 302.44 yards – DD, 70.83% – GIR
• Other – So he’s missed the cut once here and has finished in the Top 2 in eight out of eleven appearances at this event. Normally for cash games I wouldn’t suggest paying up for the 24^th ranked player in the world, but he’s clearly the top choice regardless of how you look at it and I think you need some security in cash games this week. It’s not a free space by any means, but it’s a plug and play move for sure. For GPP’s I’ll have 50-75% of GPP teams that begin with him.

Branden Grace (DK $11,200)

• Course History: 8^th – Win – 12^th – MC – MC – 53^rd – MC
• Form: 27^th – 3^rd – 30^th
• Stats: 68 – Scoring Avg, 49.91% – DA, 297.51 yards – DD, 69.44% GIR
• Other – If you don’t want to start your cash teams with Charl, then look no further to the younger class of South African golfer in Grace. Ranking 16^th in the world (he’s ranked higher than Charl) we’re getting a nice discount on a player who has transformed his game since his missed cut days at this event. I’ll try to stuff both players onto a couple GPP teams if roster construction allows it, if not I’ll do the 50-50 split of Grace/Charl to begin my teams. I’ll also be creating two cash teams beginning with each of them as a hedge as I believe they both can finish 1-2 in this tournament.

George Coetzee (DK $9,100)

• Course History: MC – MC – 10^th – 3^rd – MC – 45^th – 18^th
• Form: 30^th – 25^th – 5^th – 40^th – 31^st
• Stats: 11 – Scoring Avg, 57.31% – DA, 299.43 yards – DD, 66.05% – GIR
• Other – Coetzee has had an up and down year, but has somewhat righted the ship as of late making five of his last six cuts. The concern is the week off while putting together a solid run of events as well as the price. I don’t think he has what it takes to meet value this week and therefore will see minimal GPP only exposure in my lineups this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Gregory Bourdy (DK $9,500) is a familiar name to the Euro DFS world and comes in having made seven of his last eight cuts, including seven straight. He’s never missed the cut here, so he’s a fine option for cash games and also possesses the upside for GPPs as he’s finished 2^nd & 3^rd in his last two appearances. He’s one of the few non South Africans I’m willing to roster from the top and comes in at a huge discount compared to the top two. Brandon Stone (DK $8,800) finished 18^th here last year in his first appearance and followed that up with a win the next week at the BMW SA Open. For whatever reason, the European Tour players have these little tidbits that factor in to players finding their groove at the right moment, and coming off a 2^nd place finish last week I’m inclined to thinking his win the week after this week last year brings back some fond memories.       

 

VALUE PLAYS:

  David Drysdale (DK $8,000)

• Tournament History: 18^th – 6^th – 11^th – 25^th – MC – 8^th – MC – 29^th – 28^th – MC
• Form: 49^th – 13^th – 44^th
• Stats: 26 – Scoring Avg, 69.57% DA, 280.48 yards – DD, 74.43% GIR
• Other – Cut making is why we highlight him each week and this week is no exception. His price is a bit higher than normal but again, we have limited European Tour regulars in this field to drive it down so we have to take what we can get. There’s not much to talk about here other than the cuts and a really solid course history, if he misses the cut I won’t be too mad, but from what I can see he’s a solid value/punt play that should play all four days.

Benjamin Hebert (DK $8,000)

• Course History: 3^rd – 28^th
• Form: 34^th – 68^th
• Stats: 90 – Scoring Avg, 63.92% – DA, 285.69 yards – DD, 75.25% – GIR
• Other – Hebert is usually a favorite punt play of mine, but in this weaker event field he gets the bump to the value play section. Hitting fairways and greens still cashes checks on the Euro Tour and Benji does this with the best of ‘em. I’m actually surprised to see how well he’s finished in this event in the past because he doesn’t really come across as anything but a cut maker. Regardless, we’re going to need some salary relief this week and since my main man Bland isn’t in the field he’ll have to do.

Dylan Frittelli (DK $7,700)

• Tournament History: 11^th – 22^nd
• Form: 8^th – 36^th – 42^nd – 6^th – 6^th
• Stats:55 – Scoring Avg, 65.93% – DA, 291.17 yards – DD, 68.38% – GIR
• Other – South African Frittelli has been rolling on the Sunshine Tour of late and looks to keep it going again this week. Statistically he’s a bomber who hits a nice chunk of fairways and greens, but separates himself from the group with the putter. I’ll consider him this week’s Euro version of Wes Bryan and will be plugging him into my GPP teams for sure.

ALSO CONSIDER – Jbe’ Kruger (DK $8,100) has made his last five cuts at this event and finished in the Top 10 in his last two on Tour. I’m comfortable rolling him out in cash games as he hasn’t missed the cut here since 2009 and with solid form coming in I’m not too worried about him missing falling off the map when he’s been rolling. South African Zander Lombard (DK $7,800) who missed the cut in his only appearance here in 2014, but comes in off a 4^th place finish last week and has another 4^th place finish in his last five events. Lombard makes for a very nice cut maker in both cash & GPP’s this week. He’ll be contrarian in cash as well because he lacks the course history that most rely on for building their cash teams. I also like South African Dean Burmester (DK $7,600) has horrible course history so I wouldn’t look to play him in cash, but he makes for a really nice GPP play with two 8^th place finishes in his last four, including last week.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

 Chris Hanson (DK $6,900)

• Tournament History: 44^th
• Form: 65^th – MC – MC – 20^th – 8^th
• Stats: 69 – Scoring Avg, 58.89% – DA, 292.34 yards – DD, 68.02% – GIR
• Other – I can’t believe it has been three months since Hanson has played well. Hanson possesses all the talent we like in a punt play and has a ton of upside, but seemed to hit a rut towards the end of the summer. Since his 65^th place finish, he’s taken five weeks off from competitive golf to get the car back on the rails so I’m willing to give him another shot at winning me money; especially at this price in this field.

Scott Henry (DK $5,800)

• Tournament History: 44^th
• Form: 24^th – 25^th – 34^th – 49^th
• Stats: 85 – Scoring Avg, 43.84% – DA, 295.72 yards – DD, 62.50% – GIR
• Other – This huge value falls right into our laps this week. Henry has outperformed his price this week in every event he’s played since DraftKings began doing Euro Tour contests. All we’re looking for here is a made cut and he clearly has shown he possesses enough upside to help our GPP teams too. I’m making him a core play this week for both cash & GPP’s and hope that nobody else is aware of his success this year. His average putts per round is 28.55, which is probably the lowest I’ve seen while looking up stats on the Euro Tour for a punt.

ALSO CONSIDER – Daniel Brooks (DK $7,600) has two Top 30’s (14^th & 29^th) in his only two appearances here, but more importantly has only missed two cuts in his last seven events. As with Hanson he’s been on a bit of a break from golf, so hopefully the reset leads to lower scores, higher finishes and not just happy we get him through the Friday cut. Madilitso Muthiya (DK $7,400) hasn’t had much success on the European Tour this year, but has been killing it as of late on the mini tours (21^st – 3^rd – 4^th – 37^th – 7^th – 10^th 31^st). He hits about 70% of fairways and greens in regulation and averages 1.76 putts per green in regulation. He’s not a cash play by any means, but could be a nice GPP punt that could pay off.  Pablo Martin Benavides (DK $5,900) won here in 2009 and successfully defended his championship the following season. He hasn’t played at all regularly as he relies on sponsor exemptions to gain entry into tournaments, which is why he’s here as a former winner. I’m not sure what’s more odd, the fact that he’s performed extremely well here or that he can’t get into other events to maintain a card. Either way he could be a very nice GPP punt play this week.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Pablo Larrazabal (DK $8,200)

• Course History: MC – 40^th
• Form: 52^nd – 39^th – 8^th – MC
• Stats: 98 – Scoring Avg, 57.06% – DA, 286.20 yards – DD, 69.32% – GIR
• Other – This is the GPP’ist of all GPP plays here. Course history is trash and basically non-existent and his form isn’t something that indicates “he’s finding his groove” or trending in the right direction. The play isn’t for anyone with known heart conditions, but Pablo is a good stick who’s played well in some strong fields this year. This is the kind of play that wins GPP’s, but just know what you’re getting yourself into here: in order to pay off he needs to open with a round under par. In 27 events, Pablo has opened with 12 rounds under par and has finished in the Top 10 in four of those events.

Danie Van Tonder (DK $7,700)

• Course History: MC – 16^th – MC – 15^th
• Form: 27^th – MC – 3^rd – 2^nd – 3^rd – 11^th
• Stats: 81 – Scoring Avg, 56.35% – DA, 287.40 yards – DD, 63.58% – GIR
• Other – Danie doesn’t hit my normal qualifications for GPP plays this week, but I’ve basically mentioned everyone I like in this space already so I’m forcing this one a bit based on his current form. I’d like it if his stats indicated a strength SOMEWHERE in his game, but none of that seems to coincide with his success on the Sunshine Tour as of late. His scoring average has gone up since last year which looks to be attributed to his putting average also going up (bad), but so has his driving accuracy and greens in regulation percentage (good) the caveat here is that his stats outside of scoring average are similar to Branden Grace, who’s actually won on both the PGA & European Tours. I’m really just looking to hop on the heat train from the Sunshine Tour and hope that his trend of “every other year” continues. Oh, and I really wanted to use this pun – This looks like a week to swipe right on Tonder.

ALSO CONSIDER – South Africans Richard Sterne (DK $9,300), Thomas Aiken (DK $8,500), Jaco Ahlers (DK $7,600) and Tjaart Van Der Walt (DK $7,000). Out of all of these guys my favorite is Aiken mainly because he’s a ball striker and I happen to think that most ball strikers will present themselves with more birdie chances than a bomber with an average short game or someone who relies solely on draining 30 footers for birdie from hole to hole. Van Der Walt missed the cut here last year, but prior to that had been extremely solid in seven appearances so I’m willing to throw out last year’s result. He definitely would be my second option of the South African group. Sterne is overpriced and “old”, but won here in 2008 so he’ll probably garner some ownership by the “capture magic in a bottle” group. Ahlers finished 7^th last week, 26^th two weeks ago, and 13^th the week after the win at the Vodacom Origins of Golf over fellow South African Jacques Kruyswijk who won on the Sunshine Tour last week. The problem with all of those finishes is that they didn’t feature PGA & European Tour professionals, so it’s difficult for me to get excited about paying this much for them when you have at least ten players that have professional experience, but that’s why we play the game! So to summarize that list again; Aiken, Ahlers, Van Der Walt, Sterne would be how I would rank the higher priced South Africans of this group.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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