Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship (European Package)

OVERVIEW
Rory couldn’t close the door on Graeme Storm last week (that was a weird sentence to write),  and has withdrawn from the event this week. The field is a lot stronger than last week which should make for some nice golf sweats this week. Defending champion Rickie Fowler (also a weird sentence to write, mainly because he’s over rated as a golfer) looks to be the first to make the cut in his defense since Jamie Donaldson in 2014 (Donaldson finished 56th). Bombers have a nice advantage this week, but the fairways are a bit tighter than we’re used to seeing on the Euro Tour so we’ll be leaning on bombers who hit higher percentages of fairways, but by no means do we need to target “driving accuracy only” guys as most of the par 4’s are pretty long.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND
o The Course
• Abu Dhabi GC
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,583
• Greens: Bermuda
o Location: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
o Expected scoring: Scoring has been down with the exception of three years between 2009 through 2011, so I’d expect more of the same this year and -18 should bring home the hardware.
o Past Champions:
• 2016: Rickie Fowler -16 over Thomas Pieters [-15]
• 2015: Gary Stal -19 over Rory McIlroy [-18]
• 2014: Pablo Larrazabal -14 over Rory McIlroy & Phil Mickelson
• 2013: Jamie Donaldson -14 over Thorbjorn Olesen & Justin Rose [-13]
• 2012: Robert Rock -13 over Rory McIlroy [-12]
• 2011: Martin Kaymer -24 over Rory McIlroy [-16]

KEY STATS TO TARGET
o Strong Emphasis – Greens In Regulation, Driving Distance
o Important – Course History, Current Form, Driving Accuracy

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STARS:

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,500)
• Course History: No Course History
• Form: 6th – 3rd
• Stats: 71.23 – Scoring Avg, 62.50% – DA, 303.25 yards – DD, 68.06% – GIR
• Other – With Rory withdrawing this tournament just became DJ’s to lose. Yes, he’s never been here, but its Dustin Johnson we’re talking about. He’s by far the best talent in the field now (possibly could make an argument for the guy below) who mashes the ball of the tee and drops an ample amount of birdies. He’s expensive, but proved he was worth it multiple times last year.

Henrik Stenson (DK $11,100)
• Course History: 3rd – MC – MC – 23rd – MC – 42nd – 20th – MC – 2nd – 8th – 2nd
• Form: 2nd – 9th – 8th
• Stats: 69.14 – Scoring Avg, 76.40% – DA, 292.35 yards – DD, 77.78% GIR
• Other – Iceman has struggled at this event as of late, but I’m not too concerned. My first thoughts are that people will primarily fade him due to the inconsistent course history, which would immediately make him a GPP play as we all know how good he is in all facets of the game. If you’re making 10 lineups, I think I’d make 4 with DJ, 4 with Stenson, 1 with both and 1 with none for GPP’s.

Rickie Fowler (DK $10,300)
• Course History: Win – 66th
• Form: 3rd
• Stats: 70.86 – Scoring Avg, 66.07% – DA, 289.63 yards – DD, 76.39% – GIR
• Other – Fowler’s game is a bit perplexing in that when he should show up, he doesn’t and vice versa. This course doesn’t seem to fit his game at all, but he was able to win last year and beat a surging Pieters in the process. I’m not an advocate of playing defending champions unless they’re elite golfers, so this is not an endorsement to play Rickie this week. I just don’t see him having it again, but he could finish in the Top 10 this week, which would get him close to meeting value. I’ll be fading him, but because of my own biases. If you’re torn between him and one of the guys below, I’d go with the guys below.

ALSO CONSIDER – Alex Noren (DK $9,600) tees it up this week and is always in play. He doesn’t have any previous finishes here to suggest he should be relatively chalky at his price in GPP’s especially with all of the bigger names around him. I much prefer him over Bernd Wiesberger (DK $9,000) and Fowler for that matter. He lit the Euro Tour on fire last year and looks to keep that momentum going. Tyrrell Hatton (DK $8,100) should be considered for all formats this week as he’s coming off a 2nd place finish in his last event and has two Top 10’s in three tries here and offers considerable salary relief at this price. The problem is, he will probably be chalky because of it, but I don’t care.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Branden Grace (DK $9,500)
• Tournament History: 5th – 20th – 52nd – 5th – MC
• Form: 13th – 32nd – 20th
• Stats: 70.00 – Scoring Avg, 37.05% DA, 308.63 yards – DD, 69.44% GIR
• Other – Grace bounced back in Honolulu after his horrid play on Maui to the tune of a 13th place finish where it looked like he’d be the first MDF victim for those that took the risk in playing him last week. This week he comes back to a familiar place where he’s had a roller coaster of finishes and judging by his statistics, I’d say he could be heading home quickly this weekend if he doesn’t keep the ball in the fairway. He lost strokes off the tee again last week, but the putter bailed him out so hopefully that was a sign of things to come for this week. I’m not 100% sold on him for cash games yet this week, but he’s still a top 25 golfer in this field so hopefully he continues to keep the rounds under par instead of over.

Martin Kaymer (DK $8,000)
• Tournament History: 16th – 3rd – 31st – 6th – MC – Win – Win – 2nd – Win – MC
• Form: 19th
• Stats: 70.78 – Scoring Avg, 61.23% – DA, 291.18 yards – DD, 71.66% – GIR
• Other – Kaymer will probably be the chalkiest play of the week at this price and for good reason. Being a 3 time winner with a 2nd and 3rd place finish and only missing two cuts in his career here will do that to ownership. He’s too good of a value to pass up this week, so eat the chalk and move on.

Jordan Smith (DK $7,600)
• Course History: No course history
• Form: 3rd – 36th – MC – 17th – Win – MC – 68th
• Stats: 71.17 – Scoring Avg, 62.86% – DA, 304.60 yards – DD, 67.78% – GIR
• Other – 3rd place finish for the kid last week and I hope you had him in your core as suggested. This week he doesn’t have any course history, but I’m not concerned. He’s been playing really consistent golf for a while now and looks to be as comfortable as he can competing in these fields. I don’t know if I’d call him a core play quite yet, but he’s close to the circle of trust.

Ryan Fox (DK $7,500)
• Tournament History: No Course History
• Form: 9th – 4th
• Stats: 70.25 – Scoring Avg, 55.36% – DA, 334.75 yards – DD, 73.61% – GIR
• Other – Fox is on the run and making his debut at this event. The Kiwi represented New Zealand in the Olympics and ever since has shown a knack for this golf thing. If you haven’t heard of him yet, you will as he mashes the ball off the tee (334.75 yard average) and hits a ton of greens in regulation; two categories I love seeing high numbers in.

ALSO CONSIDER – Ross Fisher (DK $8,200) is a cut maker who has some upside when he gets on courses that suit his game. If you’re looking at his history, you might not think this is a course for him, but I think it actually suits his game pretty well. His primary concern this week will be the putter, and if that shows up so will the low scores. Peter Hanson (DK $7,800) has only missed one cut in ten appearances and has only finished outside the Top 10 in three. He’s an old fella who knows the course so I’m confident in rostering him this week. Joakim Lagergren (DK $7,300) finished 22nd here last year as an unknown talent and hasn’t missed a cut since the Open de France. Lagergren should have no issues with the length of the course as he averages 291 off the tee and hits close to 70% of greens in regulation. The kicker with him is that he can actually putt, so I like him in all formats this week.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

David Drysdale (DK $7,100)
• Tournament History: 22nd – 66th – MC – 35th – MC – MC – 68th
• Form: 7th – 57th – 11th – 49th – 13th – 44th
• Stats: 71.26 – Scoring Avg, 69.57% – DA, 280.48 yards – DD, 74.43% – GIR
• Other – Drysdale made the most out of last week’s start finishing 7th and was in the hunt for the majority of the tournament (if you want to call it that). The problem here is that he’s not known to put together good back to back finishes, so if I was just expecting a made cut last week, you can only imagine what my hopes are this week (primarily because I choose to be pessimistic and be rewarded with low expectations) His length off the tee will always be a concern, especially on this course so if he makes the cut and finishes DFL just know that that’s basically what you’re signing up for this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Peter Uihlein (DK $7,000) had it going well last week and I think he continues rolling it again this week. His history here has been more bad than good, but he’s feeling it right now so he makes the team. No Rory, no Problem for Team Titleist this week. Chris Wood (DK $6,900) is a far better golfer than his price indicates this week. He’s had more down than up performances in this event over his career (two missed cuts, zero Top 10’s), but the price is right on a Euro player who’s shown he can win when you least expect it. Wood’s season last year was frustrating for him and us as it saw him WD multiple times for different reasons and for that I think I’d only recommend him for GPP’s this week. Chris Hanson (DK $6,500) gets back in our good graces following his 26th place finish last week. He’s never teed it up here prior to this year, but the price is right where we want it for the up and coming star. He’s going to break out one of these weeks and a win will be good for my #brand.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Rafa Cabrera-Bello (DK $9,300): The Man-Crush returns to action this week and I’ll be trying to stuff him in with as many studs as I can from the list below and with DJ/Stenson. Rafa finished 14th here last year and 4th two years ago, which is a lifetime ago considering how good he has been the past 6 months.

Thomas Pieters (DK $8,800): Bomber, good putter, and has good course history. Outside of Rafa I’d say he’s my favorite play this week and if he gets into a pairing with DJ make sure you set your DVR’s. Pieters is going to win a Major soon, and this is one of those events that can springboard the confidence to do so.

Joost Luiten (DK $8,600): Luiten hasn’t teed it up since the DP World Championship where he took 13th, but prior to that he’d been churning out quality starts coming off his win in his hometown Open. I think he goes overlooked this week and we should definitely not avoid someone whose history includes three straight Top 6’s.

Byeong-Hun An (DK $8,400): Benny’s ball striking will always be a draw for me. Add in his results in his only two appearances here – 5th last year, 12th the year before – and you’ve got a solid value GPP play as he hasn’t teed it up in over two months. We know what to expect from him on the greens, so hopefully he hits his approaches closer than usual this week.

Andrew Dodt (DK $7,500) has three Top 10’s in his last four, including a 2nd and 3rd place. Has only made one cut at this event in four tries though finishing 17th in 2013. It’s time the rubber meet the road here, but don’t go too crazy with his ownership.

Anthony Wall (DK $7,200) hasn’t played in the last four months so there could be some rust on the sticks this week, but that being said he seems fairly comfortable on this track with four Top 20’s including three Top 15’s and a 12th place finish two years ago. He’s another old guy that seems to be familiar with the course.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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