Fantasy Golf PGA Tournament Preview- Quicken Loans National

OVERVIEW

As with invitational events, the field this week is 120 players with the Top 70 and ties making the cut. This tournament is on a rotation of golf courses being held at Congressional Country Club this year (as well as 2012–2014, and 2007-2009) in Bethesda, Maryland. There are only three Par 5’s this week, one over 600 yards and four Par 3’s, one over 230 yards. When looking at past champions, the main thing that sticks out is that the list consists primarily of good ball strikers who’s success largely depends on how hot their putter runs that week (with the exception of vintage Tiger, who was always a threat to win a tournament regardless of how well he putted).

 

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Congressional Country Club (Blue Course)
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,569
• Greens: Bentgrass
• Location: Potomac, Maryland
• Expected scoring: Pars will still be a good score this week, but don’t worry, there will be plenty of birdies and birdie streaks this week. I expect the winner to be around -10 to -15 this week, so naturally we’ll want to target birdie makers as well as guys that make cuts on a consistent basis.  
• Past Champions (dating back to 2007):
• 2015: Troy Merritt -18 over Rickie Fowler
• 2014: Justin Rose -4 Playoff over Shawn Stefani
• 2013: Bill Haas -12 over Roberto Castro
• 2012: Tiger Woods -8 over Bo Van Pelt
• 2011: Nick Watney -13 over KJ Choi
• 2010: Justin Rose -10 over Ryan Moore
• 2009: Tiger Woods -13 over Hunter Mahan
• 2008: Anthony Kim -12 over Fredrik Jacobson
• 2007: KJ Choi -9 over Steve Stricker

 

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Ball Striking, Driving Distance, Birdie or Better %, Scrambling
• Important – SG:Putting, Total Putting, Total Driving (and TD Efficiency)

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STARS:

 

Rickie Fowler (DK $12,000)

• Course History: 21st – MC
• Form: MC (US Open), MC (Memorial), MC (Players), T4 (WF), T20 (Zurich), MC (Masters), T10 (Shell)
• Stats: 5^th – SG:OTT, 28^th – SG: APP, 10^th – SG:ARG, 5^th – SG:T2G, 47^th – SG:Putting, 3^rd – GIR, 11^th – Total Driving, 111^th – Total Driving Efficiency, 17^th – Scrambling, 11^th – P4 BoB, 13^th – P5 BoB, 10^th – BoB
• Other – It’s becoming very difficult to suggest playing Rickie on a week to week basis due to his inconsistent play mainly due to his ball striking. He’s hitting greens in regulation, he’s just not putting the ball close enough to give him good looks at birdies (hence his total driving efficiency). He’s the odds on favorite and the most expensive option this week, so it may be smart to fade him for GPPs, especially if you don’t think he will contend. Statistically he’s fairly strong so if you’re a statistic heavy DFS player, he should be on your radar and if he misses the cut this week I promise to never write him up again.

Patrick Reed (DK $11,700)  

• Course History: 11^th – 34th
• Form: MC (US Open), T8 (Memorial), T15 (Dean & Deluca), MC (Players), T28 (WF), 2^nd (Valero), T49 (Masters)
• Stats: 42^nd – SG:OTT, 83^rd – SG:APP, 1^st – SG:ARG, 12^th – SG:T2G, 53^rd – DD, 94^th – GIR, 50^th – Total Driving, 2^nd – Scrambling, 23^rd – P5 BoB
• Other – Look, he burned a lot of people last week (as with most of the people I’ve mentioned in this article), but when he’s been a part of the class of a field, he’s been pretty stellar posting nine Top 10’s in seventeen events. Ownership will be down due to the “price jump” especially coming off the missed cut, but Reed has shown he can contend in weak and strong fields this year and this week is no different.

Jim Furyk (DK $11,300)

• Course History: 44^th – 34^th – MC – 7^th – 3^rd – 3^rd
• Form: T2 (US Open), T52 (Memorial), MC (Dean & Deluca), T35 (Players), MC (WF)
• Stats: N/A – Hasn’t qualified due to lack of rounds played
• Other – Jimbo looked like he’s finally getting his game back the way it was before the injury last week, which is very encouraging. The issue is trying to decide whether or not you want to pay this price for someone who has one good event this year. Did the US Open wear him out? Did he reinjure/tweak his wrist hitting out of the thick rough at all? Is he just here to honor a commitment to Tiger or is he here to play since he missed out on so much of the beginning of the season? These are all questions you should ask yourself before rostering this old son of a gun. I’ll be playing him in cash, but I’m not sure if I can stomach his endless pars in GPP’s yet.

Marc Leishman (DK $10,900)  

• Course History: 8^th – MC – 32^nd – 51^st – 25^th
• Form: T18 (US Open), T11 (Memorial), T13 (Dean & Deluca), MC (Byron Nelson), T64 (Players), T20 (Zurich)
• Stats: 89^th – SG:OTT, 81^st SG”APP, 17^th – SG:ARG, 49^th – SG:T2G, 17^th – SG: Putting, 17^th – SG:Total, 42^nd – DD, 70^th – DA, 16^th – Total Driving, 83^rd – Proximity, 13^th – Scrambling, 12^th – Total Putting, 24^th – P4 BoB, 32^nd – P5 BoB
• Other – Leishman’s form is trending in the right direction and we’re seeing that with his price this week. Normally he’d land as a value play due to his sub $8k price, regardless of price this week I still think he’s considered a value based on how he played at the US Open and the two events leading up to it. He’s had moments like this all year (where he looks like he’s about to peak) and I’m really thinking this might be the week we see a Top 10 finish with Top 5 upside.

 

ALSO CONSIDER –  Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – Makes for a great play on Fantasy Aces with his birdie or better ability for GPP’s and I don’t mind him for cash as he may be overlooked this week.

 

 VALUE PLAYS:

 

Bill Haas (DK $9,200)

• Course History: 30^th – WIN – 23^rd – MC – 36^th – 30^th
• Form: T51 (US Open), MC (Memorial), T47 (Dean & Deluca), T43 (Players), MC (WF), T14 (Heritage), T24 (Masters)
• Stats: 43^rd – SG:APP, 9^th – SG:ARG, 27^th – SG:T2G, 31^st – GIR, 43^rd – DA, 84^th – Total Driving, 135^th – Total Driving Efficiency, 37^th – Scrambling
• Other – Another “boring” pick, Haas has the pedigree and the slow antagonizing ability to grind out weak field events like no one else. If this turns into a slow grind, where pars are at a premium or as good as birdies, then Haas is a guy I want on my teams this week, especially for cash games.

Charles Howell III (DK $8,200 )

• Course History: 46th – MC – 68th – MC – 22nd
• Form: T26 (St Jude), T48 (Memorial), T4(Byron Nelson), MC (Players), MC (WF), T11 (Zurich), T23 (Heritage)
• Stats: 60th – SG:APP, 20^th – SG:ARG, 32nd  – SG:T2G, 24th  – GIR, 183^rd – DA, 106th – Total Driving, 137^th – Total Driving Efficiency, 22nd – Scrambling
• Other- Howell has been as consistent as anyone on Tour this year with 13/16 cuts made, and ranks fourth in total DraftKings points behind Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and Matt Kuchar. I really like him on Fantasy Aces this week for both cash and GPP’s.

 ALSO CONSIDER –Roberto Castro (DK $8,600) – Castro has shown some flashes this year and based on his course history I’m willing to let him see a few of my GPP lineups this week. His ownership percentage should come in sub 7% so if he makes a run he could be a difference maker for your teams.  Chris Kirk (DK $7,800 ) –Now’s a great time to jump back on board with Kirk on a ball striking course, especially while your competitors are still salty from last week’s missed cut. He’s been a bit inconsistent lately as he’s 10/16 cuts made, but a few weeks ago he was trending in the right direction. Let’s put aside our bias this week and let Kirk make it up to us.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

 

 Adam Hadwin (DK $7,500)

• Course History: 39^th (2011)
• Form: T11 (Memorial), T22 (Dean & Deluca), T58 (Byron Nelson), T39 (Players), T61 (WF), T36 (Zurich)
• Stats: 6^th – SG: Putting, 84^th – GIR, 65^th – DA, 59^th – Total Driving, 5^th – Total Putting, 3^rd – P3 BoB, 69^th – P5 BoB
• Other – Hadwin’s been playing some solid golf over the past month and is moving his way into the discussion for best Canadian golfer on Tour (alongside David Hearn). He’s made 15/20 cuts this year and has made seven of his last eight cuts ranging from the Memorial (strong field) to the Heritage (weak-ish field) so we know he’s here to play this week. He isn’t spectacular, but he’s very consistent with his ball striking and obviously a great I’m really hoping he goes overlooked this week.

 

David Hearn (DK $7,400)

• Course History: 44^th (2013)
• Form: T41 (St Jude), T27 (Memorial), T17 (Dean & Deluca), T28 (Players), MC (WF), T20 (Zurich), T13 (Valero)
• Stats: 21^st – SG:APP, 79^th SG:ARG, 59^th – SG:T2G, 25^th – DA, 39^th – GIR, 24^th – TDEfficency, 1^st – Proximity to Hole, 6^th – Fairway Prox, 58^th – Rough Prox, 69^th – Scrambling, 18^th – P3 BoB, 56^th – P4 BoB
• Other – Hearn does a lot of things very well and it shows in his statistical breakdown above. The fact that he doesn’t convert a high percentage of Par 5’s doesn’t concern me this week (even though you should still be able to convert on P5’s regardless of how many are on the course), but the fact that he ranks so highly on P3 & P4 Birdie or Better is whats really drawing me to him this week especially since he’s coming in well rested also.

Martin Piller (DK $6,400)

• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: MC (St Jude), T6 (Dean & Deluca), MC (Byron Nelson), T41 (WF), MC (Zurich), T4 (Valero)
• Stats: 18^th – SG:Putting, 11^th – Total Driving Efficiency, 29^th – Proximity to Hole, 25^th – Rough Prox, 47^th – Fairway Prox, 10^th – Total Putting, 77^th – P4 BoB
• Other – Piller shows up here mainly because I think he’s a good golfer who will be flying under the radar after missing the cut at St. Jude and not playing in the US Open. He lacks consistency, but with that we also get a reduced price tag on a guy who has shown us he has the upside to finish in the Top 5 in both weak field events and average strength events. I’m not condoning playing him in cash games, but I think he’s worth a flier in GPP’s on DraftKings and Fantasy Aces this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Wesley Bryan (DK $7,100) – Lit the course on fire in Nashville on Thursday, followed that up with a 76 on Friday to basically take him out of the tournament after having a nice lead. I’m hoping people see that, paired with how things went in his inaugural PGA Tour appearance and fade him – because I won’t be. Patton Kizzire (DK $6,700), John Senden (DK $7,200) – Consistently ignored, and on ball striker courses he deserves some attention. Not much more to say about him other than fire him up if you’re looking for cap relief on a cut maker with good course history.Tim Wilkinson (DK $6,000) – Wilkinson has been playing some lights out golf this year. His cut making ability even in strong fields warrants a play yet again this week. Chez Reavie (DK $6,700)

 

GPP PLAYS:

 

Brendan Steele (DK $9,900)

• Course History: 5^th – 16^th – 68^th
• Form: T15 (US Open), T20 (Memorial), T57 (Players), T14 (WF), T13 (Valero), MC (Heritage), MC (Shell)
• Stats: 24^th – SG: OTT, 46^th – SG: APP, 42^nd – SG:T2G, 14^th – DD, 19^th – GIR, 20^th – Total Driving, 53^rd – TDE, 64^th – Fairway Prox, 64^th – P4 BoB, 21^st – P5 BoB
• Other – 13/17 cuts made including five of his last five which have come on some tough tracks with strong fields. Steele’s scoring primarily comes from how far and accurate he is off the tee. If he’s hitting fairways, he’ll be dropping birds. If not, well, you’ll be able to see all of the tilt on Twitter because he should be a fairly popular play this week. Regardless of ownership, I still really like him this week.

Gary Woodland (DK $10,300)

• Course History: 46^th – 16^th – 73^rd – 23rd
• Form: MC (St. Jude), T4 (Memorial), T12 (Byron Nelson), T28 (Players), T24 (WF), T20 (Zurich)
• Stats: 29^th – SG: OTT, 19^th – SG:APP, 76^th – SG:ARG, 14^th – SG:T2G, 21^st – SG:Total, 4^th – DD, 30^th – GIR, 69^th – Total Driving, 55^th – Rough Prox, 90^th – Scrambling, 99^th – P4 BoB, 4^th – P5 BoB
• Other – Woodland had a little hiccup at the St. Jude, but I’m still going all in on him this week. Missed cuts happen (see Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Patrick Reed, etc. last week) even for guys who are trending in the right direction like Woodland was. His game has been so sharp these past few months that maybe fatigue finally caught up to him and he wasn’t able to do the things he did at Memorial. Regardless, he bounced back with a 33^rd place finish after missing his last cut, and I don’t see him missing back to back cuts this week especially with the extra week of rest/practice.

ALSO CONSIDER – Byeong-Hun An (DK $9,600), Jamie Lovemark (DK $8,200), Kevin Chappell (DK $9,400) – All three of these guys are gut plays. BHA is the third highest ranked player in the field, a ball striker, and last time he was underpriced in a weak field he lost in a playoff to Brian Stuard. Jamie Lovemark was also in that playoff and like Chappell, is playing far too well to be ignored this week. Every time a week sets up for Chappell’s strengths he disappoints the world, so instead of wasting my time with an in depth analysis I’ll just say he warrants some GPP consideration in the event things actually work in his favor this week.

 

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

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