Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Career Builder Challenge

OVERVIEW

Last week we saw Justin Thomas win his first event with a cut and he did it in record breaking fashion starting off the week becoming the youngest player to shoot a 59. Congrats to those who played him as he had over 130 DK points after 3 rounds of play. This week we move back to the mainland and head to the ball strikers paradise known as PGA West La Quinta Country Club. This week is a bit different with the cut sweats being on Saturday instead of Friday (cut will come after everyone has played all three courses) so making sure your punt plays not only make the cut, but place high will be the difference in winning GPP’s or ending up with a min cash. One strategy that worked well last year was targeting players who didn’t hit the Stadium Course until Saturday as this is the hardest of the three courses. The thinking there is that the players can play their normal game for the first two days and not have to press to make the cut; this will be my strategy again this year so make sure you pay attention to the tee time pairings when they’re released (unfortunately they are not out as of writing).

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course(s)
• PGA West TPC Stadium Course (Host Course)
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,113 yards
• Greens: Bermuda
o The Course(s)
• La Quinta Country Club
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,060 yards
• Greens: Bermuda
o The Course(s)
• PGA West Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,159 yards
• Greens: Bermuda
o Location: La Quinta, California
o Expected scoring: As mentioned above, it would be wise to target golfers who don’t hit the Stadium Course until Saturday. Even though the host course is the most difficult, the other two are fairly easy when looking at scoring versus other events during the year and I’d expect the winner to be somewhere in the mid 20’s under par again this week. -24 should be enough to get it done.
o Past Champions:
• 2016: Jason Dufner -25 over David Lingmerth in a playoff
• 2015: Bill Haas (2) -22 over Charley Hoffman, Matt Kuchar, Brendan Steele, Steve Wheatcroft & Sun-Joon Park [-21]
• 2014: Patrick Reed -28 over Ryan Palmer [-26]
• 2013: Brian Gay -25 over Charles Howell III & David Lingmerth in a playoff
• 2012: Mark Wilson -24 over Robert Garrigus, John Mallinger & Johnson Wagner [-22]

KEY STATS TO TARGET

o Strong Emphasis – SG:T2G, SG:APP, SG:P, Birdie Or Better
o Important – Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring, Scrambling, Bogey Avoidance

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STARS:

Patrick Reed (DK $11,200)
• Course History: 56th – 24th – Win – MC – 22nd
• Form: 6th – 43rd – 10th
• Stats: 65th – SG:OTT, 84th – SG:APP, 40th– SG:P, 30th – SG:T2G, 41st – DD, 116th – GIR, 21st – Birdie Avg, 8th – Scrambling, 18th – BoB%
• Other – Patrick Reed is one of the anomalies of PGA DFS in that his performances when priced over $9k are far inferior to when he’s priced below it. Obviously he’s shown the ability to win this event, but that was three years ago now and his game is less consistent on a week to week basis. His form coming in is on par with last year, where he finished 2nd at ToC (finished 6th this year). 2015 he won the ToC, followed with a 24th at this event and in 2014 he was 16th at ToC and won here. So with all that being said, I’m going to continue to fade expensive Patrick Reed until he shows me he can be a front runner. He’ll be GPP chalk for sure since everyone loves this tubby SOB, so fading seems like the play to me.

Phil Mickelson (DK $10,800)
• Course History: 3rd – 24th – 37th – 49th – 45th – 5th
• Form: No form in last two months
• Stats: 132nd – SG:OTT, 5th – SG:APP, 9th – SG:P, 27th– SG:T2G, 84th – GIR, 7th – Birdie Avg, 4th – Scrambling, 8th – BoB%
• Other – It’s worth noting that Phil underwent hernia surgery in November, so there may be considerable amount of rust that needs to be kicked off during this event. Phil’s a “California Boy” so he seems to always show up during the West Coast Swing and that is evident by 17 of his 40+ wins coming on the west coast. With so much unknown surrounding his rehab post-surgery I’d limit my exposure to him in GPP’s only this week even though he’s never missed a cut here.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $9,800)
• Course History: No Course History
• Form: 17th – 16th
• Stats: 28th – SG:OTT, 64th – SG:APP, 48th – SG:T2G, 108th – SG:P, 67th – DD, 27th – GIR, 26th – Birdie Avg, 156th – Scrambling, 35th – BoB%
• Other – The Grillo-Pad is one of my favorite players coming into the year and I have no reservations with rolling him out in his first appearance since the Hero. Grillo’s a strong tee to green player who can putt so this course should setup well for him. You probably won’t see much ownership on him in cash games due to not having any course history, but I’m not concerned and will have him in all formats this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Bill Haas (DK $10,500) will be the chalk play this week as he’s won here twice since 2010, finished 13th last week and finished in the Top 10 in his last three appearances here. I’m not sure if this is a place to fade considering how well he played last week, but I’d be weary of running him out in too many GPP lineups as a result of expected ownership this week. Charles Howell III (DK $9,900) got the huge price bump this week after his 8th place finish and I have to imagine he’ll be cash chalk and under owned in GPP’s so if you want to get a quality player that’s overpriced at low ownership I think he’s in play for GPP’s. I’m not sure I’m ready to roster him in cash at this price when I can pay up for Haas or down for Kevin Na (DK $8,800). also has played well at this event over his career with three Top 10’s in nine appearances. He’s yet to cash in on the Nappy Factor so I will continue to suggest him until he does so. Finishing 36th in his first appearance since the Obama campaign isn’t a bad start either, I’d primarily look to play him in cash this week until we see him trend in the right direction.

 

VALUE PLAYS:
Brendan Steele (DK $9,300)
• Tournament History: 34th – 2nd – MC – 56th – 67th – MC
• Form: 6th – 31st
• Stats: 26th – SG:OTT, 57th – SG:APP, 149th – SG:P, 49th – SG:T2G, 25th – GIR, 90th – Birdie Avg, 162nd – Scrambling, 82nd – BoB%
• Other – Blue Steele isn’t exactly who I thought I’d be writing up in this space, but here we are. I could’ve reserved this spot for Na, but I didn’t want to mention him twice (and for the record I like Na over Steele this week, but so will a lot of people). Steele has solid better T2G & OTT numbers than Howell and comes in at $600 cheaper. Like Howell III, he should go under owned in GPP’s and makes for a nice HuLo play as well as being a low owned guy in cash that makes a difference come cut time.

Luke List (DK $8,600)
• Course History: 6th – 65th – 38th
• Form: 13th – 13th – 7th – 15th
• Stats: 30th – SG:OTT, 54th – SG:APP, 154th – SG:P, 33rd – SG:T2G, 54th – GIR, 35th– Birdie Avg, 44th – Scrambling, 38th – BoB%
• Other – If there’s one thing List does well, its get off the tee. List ranked 30th in SG: OTT and currently ranks 34th in 19 measured rounds, List presents a ton of upside in his birdie making and scoring average. I think this is a huge breakout year for him, and it could’ve began last week with the 13th place finish. It’s also comforting to see that he hasn’t missed a cut here when he wasn’t the promising player he is today.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,700)
• Course History: 17th – 15th – MC – 47th – 62nd – 13th – 10th
• Form: 36th – 3rd
• Stats: 11th – SG:OTT, 46th – SG:APP, 132nd – SG:P, 28th – SG:T2G, 35th – DD, 1st – GIR, 30th – Birdie Avg, 123rd – Scrambling, 32nd – BoB%
• Other – Glover is a guy you’ll rarely see in this article unless I see something worth noting. His putting woes are well documented as is his strong tee to green game. Rostering Glover is not for the weak of hearts, so if you have a heart condition, check with your primary care physician before rostering him. All that being said, his history here is legit having only missed one cut in seven tries and he’s shown the upside that he presents already during the swing season.

David Lingmerth (DK $7,300)
• Tournament History: 2nd – 24th – 78th – 2nd
• Form: 49th
• Stats: 62nd – SG:OTT, 96th – SG:APP, 84th – SG:P, 81st – SG:T2G, 134th – GIR, 62nd – Birdie Avg, 71st – Scrambling, 66th – BoB%
• Other – Baby Huey knocked off the rust last week to the tune of a 49th place finish and was basically a ghost all week as he struggled off the tee and spent more time scrambling than he probably would’ve liked. Lingmerth returns to a place where he’s been boom or bust (literally), but I like the way his game translates to this course. Since he’s a boom or bust play and his accuracy off the tee was pretty bad last week, I’d reserve him more for GPPs than cash this week, but wouldn’t knock you for throwing him in cash for the salary relief if needed.

ALSO CONSIDER – Kevin Streelman (DK $8,100) has been a beast of a value play here year after year and I’ll be rostering this Wilson Pro Staff Tour Member. I don’t know what it is about him that gets me so worked up, but that’s why you can’t let emotion get in the way of roster construction. Streels is the real deal this week. He finished 11th last year, and has two other Top 10’s in the last five years. Ryan Palmer (DK $8,000) missed the cut last week and wasn’t close to putting anything together. His history here indicates some comfort with five Top 10’s in nine tries so I think last week was more of the same as with a lot of these guys that haven’t played since the playoffs. Fire him up with confidence in all formats.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

There’s not much down here so I’ll touch on some guys I like. Henrik Norlander (DK $6,800) finished T20 last week in Hawaii, his first cut made since the Wyndam. Prior to the Wyndham he had made nine straight cuts and is a ball striker that we should be targeting this week especially with all of the overpriced average to good golfers in the field. I’ll be playing him in all formats this week as he won me some nice money towards the end of last year and it’s the least I can do for him. I think I’d be willing to take a shot on Nick Watney (DK $6,500) this week in GPP’s. He hasn’t done much since returning from injury, but he’s a good enough golfer to gets things going again on a course he’s had success at previously. He could be this week’s Webb Simpson at this price, but I wouldn’t go there in cash games. Mark Wilson (DK $5,900) isn’t someone that will usually win you a GPP, but when it comes to getting cheapo’s through the cut Wilson checks the box. Wilson won here in 2012, then missed the next two cuts, but was able to play the full weekend in his next two appearances finishing 56th & 30th respectively. He should be a low owned bargain bin play with decent upside this week. Mark Hubbard (DK $5,900) is a guy I would be willing to consider for cash though, he played like absolute garbage off the tee, but was able to score when presented with opportunities last week. He doesn’t have a ton of upside for GPP’s, but is worth the shot in cash games as he’s 3/3 and two Top 25’s for his career here.

 

GPP PLAYS:
Jon Rahm (DK $9,700): Hasn’t teed it up on the PGA Tour since his 50th place finish at the OHL, but did come 8th in a “fun” event paired with Rafa at the ISPS World Cup of Golf. Rahm’s good at everything and I’ll be damned if I’m not on him when he finally notches his first win.

Jamie Lovemark (DK $9,600): 4th last week (should gain some steam as the week progresses), 6th last year, but has poor course history for his career – 50% cuts made prior to 2016, nothing in the top 25. Long off the tee, good with his irons and scores on P4’s & P5’s.

Charley Hoffman ($8,500): 17th at ToC didn’t instill any confidence in those that rostered him and is always a GPP play unless the event is in Texas. Hoffman has either missed the cut or placed in the Top 10 at this event in 9 appearances, so he definitely fits the bill as a GPP play.

Scott Piercy ($8,300): Was fairly chalky last week and burned a lot of people, so naturally the play is to go back to the guy that disappointed. His history here will support the play even more as he’s only made 1 of 4 cuts here with his best finish being 30th in 2015.

Webb Simpson (DK $8,200): 13th last week at $6800 and was fairly chalky due to his price. Has four Top 25’s in six appearances and only one missed cut. Finished in the Top 10 in Par 4 Performance last year (I wouldn’t have thought that unless I looked it up). Always a GPP play due to his inconsistent putting.

Chez Reavie ($7,500): If you played him because of this recommendation last week you were rewarded with sub 5% ownership and an 8th place finish. I’m not sure he can repeat the performance, but he has the history to support the play. 17th last year, 22nd and 5th also on the resume. He’s not long off the tee, but keeps it in play and gives himself chances at birdies.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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