Fantasy Golf Insider Crystal Ball: Midseason Update

The Crystal Ball for 2015: Midseason Update
By: Fantasy Golf Insider Staff
May 28, 2015

The purpose of this article, a mid-season look back at our predictions at the start of this 2015 year is not meant to say “look how good we did”, but rather to see if we can use some of that information to identify trends or predict how those players might perform in the second half of the season. Overall, the guys that we highlighted have performed amazingly, but of course we have had a few clunkers as well. Will those clunkers turn into gems in the second half of the season or will they continue to disappoint and should we stay away from them. Will the guys who have delivered thus far this season continue to play well or have they done everything they are going to do this year. We will use our original article as the template and comment on what we have seen so far from each player this season and what we expect to see for the rest of the season.

The Crystal Ball for 2015
By: Fantasy Golf Insider Staff
January 5, 2015

Whether you are a season long or daily fantasy golfer it is important to be able to know what golfers are going to be successful before they actually become successful. We use the valuable tools available on our website FantasyGolfInsider.com to identify those golfers that you will need to target during 2015, especially early in the season before everybody else starts to catch on. We realize it is really easy to say we like the following guys to have great years- Rory Mcllroy, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, and Sergio Garcia like most “experts” do. Duh, anybody can do that. This article however digs down and tries to identify those golfers that might be flying under the radar and allow you to make money by choosing them on your fantasy golf rosters. We do recommend a few big names within the article, but only because we think they are still undervalued, have not yet started winning regularly on tour, and will outperform what most people would predict.

Players to Target:

 

Jordan Spieth- This 21 year old now has a couple of seasons on the PGA tour under his belt and is primed for a major breakout. Spieth has shown flashes of brilliance including his runner-up finish at the Masters in 2014, but was unable to win a single event in 27 PGA tournaments. That will change this season. Spieth won the Australian Open in November by a convincing 6 strokes with a blistering final round 63. He then shook off any jet lag and won the Hero World Challenge four days later. Spieth not only won that tournament, but he dominated it and shot a 26 under par, 10 strokes better than runner up Henrik Stenson. His confidence has reached a new high and his play is showing it. Our prediction is that Spieth will a couple of PGA events this year, of which one could easily be a major. For you season long players, pick him early and take advantage of the zone he is in. Daily players will have to pay a premium price, but will be worth it especially while he rides this current hot streak.

Update: You can call it a hunch, but we had the feeling Spieth would make a splash this season and we are really glad that we made him the top player on this list. So far in the first half of the season he has already delivered the two wins (including a major) that we predicted he would. He won the Valspar in March and then obviously the Masters in April. In addition to the wins, Spieth has added three runner-up finishes, an absolutely incredible start to his season. What we like so much about Spieth is his ability to come through in the clutch and the ability to respond from diversity. He has missed two cuts this season and in his immediate tournament following those, he has delivered a Top 10. We believe he will continue to play like the #2 player in the world that he is. However to assume that he is going to have five more Top 2 finishes is aggressive. He might win another event this season and continue to make Top 10s so if for some reason you have not used him in your one-and-done leagues, you can still feel good. In DFS his price has obviously become steep, and often times so high that it takes a Top 2 finish to deliver value. For cash games in DFS he is difficult to roster because of his price and also very difficult in GPPs unless the pricing in a particular week is really soft.

 

Henrik Stenson- Speaking of hot streaks, they don’t come much hotter than Mr. Stenson. He is amongst the hottest golfers according to our Who’s Hot research tool. In his past 3 events, Stenson has taken 2nd at the Hero World Challenge (only behind the hottest golfer on the planet-Jordan Spieth), a 3rd at the Turkish Airlines Open, and won the DP World Championships. Because his recent success has taken place on the European Tour, he might not have hit a lot of people’s radars yet as far as someone who can win any tournament he enters. Stenson shockingly did not win a single event on the PGA tour last year so he might be underestimated early this season. The only thing that has held Stenson back from winning events in the past has been his putting, and it looks as though he has improved in that area, at least recently. His ball striking is amongst the best on tour and he will win multiple events this season. As with Spieth, pick him early and ride his hot streak.

Update: We were really fired up with Stenson’s results when he came over from Europe because we absolutely loaded up on him in DFS and he made us very happy. In his first three tournaments he had a T4 at WGC Cadillac, 4th at Valspar, and runner-up at Arnold Palmer. Then all of a sudden he contracted a very mysterious virus and he struggled with it for over a month. Stenson gutted out some tournaments, including The Masters where he finished T19, but he clearly was significantly affected by this illness. Last we saw him he actually looked sickly having lost 20 pounds. What we foresee for the rest of the season depends on his health. If he can gain back the weight and become 100% we expect him to return to the early season form that we originally predicted. A PGA tour victory and even contending for a major would not be out of the question. Our best advice is to watch Stenson closely to see when he starts showing signs of regaining the weight and strength. When you see that, pounce immediately because it won’t be long before he starts rattling off Top 10s again.

 

Rickie Fowler- This is the year for Rickie to be hoisting some hardware. After a 2014 season of near misses, Fowler did not win a single event on tour. That will change for the better, much like his swing has with the help of Butch Harmon. Rickie had ten top 10s in 26 events last season, including top 5s in each of the four majors. We will warn you however that Fowler does have the capability to miss a cut on occasion as he showed last year by missing seven, including The Crowne Plaza Invitational. Really, he appears in all of their television ads and then throws up an 80 and a 75 back to back for them? Ugh. Anyway, we forgive him, especially since he helped us win a lot of money last year as we rostered him frequently. He is too good not to start winning, and thus we predict he will win at least 2 events this season and get a major under his orange belt.

Update: What a difference one tournament makes. Early season results yielded zero Top 10s in eight events played for Fowler. People were questioning whether he is truly the guy we thought he was who broke through last year with Top 5s in all four majors. Then a miraculous bounce on the 16th hole at TPC Sawgrass changed all of that and all the chatter was gone. Fowler used the fortuitous bounce to eagle 16 then proceed to birdie 17 and 18 and come charging from behind to create a playoff and eventually a championship at THE PLAYERS. Now the talk is how many tournaments will he win. Although we predicted he would win a couple events this year, we want to temper expectations a little bit. We feel as though he will have a good second half of the season, but to think he is going to dominate the PGA Tour now is too ambitious for us. Look for him to have a few more Top 10s and hopefully win another event to make us correct on our original prognostication, but lets see how he follows up his Players win.

 

Hideki Matsuyama- Warning: picking Matsuyama can cause severe stress and you may need to consult a heart specialist. Seriously, Matsuyama can make your jaw drop sometimes at his talent and make you want to break somebody’s jaw other times with his inconsistency. In 2014 Matsuyama missed three cuts and withdrew twice, but also had four top 10s and won the Memorial Tournament in June. This fall he has already tied for 3rd at the Frys.com, tied for 10th at the Shriners, and won the Dunlop Phoenix Open in Japan fending of Jordan Spieth to win the title. Matsuyama is definitely not the guy for the weak heart, however we will be picking him throughout 2014 as he is extremely talented and will win again soon. For daily players, he might not be a great cash game player, but definitely take a serious look at him for large tournaments (GPPs), where greatness/volatility is rewarded.

Update: Matsuyama has been really solid thus far this year and actually extremely consistent. Only one missed cut thus far, and 9 Top 25s in 11 events played including five Top 10s. What we really like about Matsuyama heading into the second half of the season is that there is not a ton of buzz around him despite his great start. Most of that is because he has not come up with a win yet, but we think one is on the horizon in the second half of the season. Whether he wins or not is going to depend upon his putting as he is currently losing 1.5 strokes to the field in putting. His ball striking is great, where he ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green. We would advise to use him for your season long and one and done leagues on a course that is kind to putters, so that part of his game will not be such a detriment. For DFS players, load up on him the second half of the season while his price is affordable and he is still under a lot of people’s radars.

 

Graeme Mcdowell- Not a bad 2014 for Mcdowell, but not a stellar one for him either. In 17 PGA events he made 16 cuts (great for you daily fantasy cash game players), including 8 top 10s. Mcdowell however did not have any wins or runner-ups and we bet that changes this season. We predict that those 7-10th place finishes turn into top 5s this year, including a tour win. He is below the top 5-10 players on tour, which means his price will be low compared to his output this year, helping us profit.

Update: Swing and a miss. Mcdowell has been dreadful so far this season. He suffered an ankle injury on the Wednesday before the Valero Texas Open, which can explain why he has not been great since then. However even before the injury, Mcdowell had two missed cuts and a T56 in three events played. We apologize that we mentioned him this year as a quality play, as he has clearly been awful and frankly we do not have a decent explanation for it. We cannot recommend rostering him anytime soon, but monitor him closely heading into the British Open. If he shows any signs right before that he is back on track, you might want to take a stab at him, because we like his chances a lot at St Andrews, but only if he is in good current form.

 

Robert Streb- Not too many people will be targeting Robert Streb early in the season, but he should offer some great value, especially in daily fantasy golf. In his 5 events of the fall season, Streb was 5 for 5 in made cuts and had 3 top 10s. He proved that he can handle the pressure of closing out a tournament by winning the McGladrey Classic in October. Streb did not have an overly impressive 2014 as he only had two top 10s all season, but he looks like a much improved golfer lately. He is currently ranked in our top 5 hottest golfers according to our current form rankings. We are not sure if he will win any more events in 2015, but he will be someone who consistently makes cuts, makes the occasional top 10 and will definitely give you great value at a reasonable price on daily sites.

Update: Those of you who have been members for a while and reading our stuff already know how big of fans we are of Robert Streb. One of the reasons is that he made us a lot of money during the fall season, which by the way is probably the most profitable time to play daily fantasy golf. We rostered him week after week and he came through for us every single week, including a win at The McGladrey. Then calendar year 2015 rolled around and people still hadn’t caught on to Streb’s success and we stayed on him and he kept rolling with three straight Top 20s. Then something happened and he no longer had the touch, missing the cut in five of the next eight events he played. We were not sure if he would regain the same form as he had but in his last three events he has shown signs placing T30 at The Players, T4 at Wells Fargo, and T19 at Crowne Plaza. It is hard for us to say with certainty which player he is going to be the second half of the season, the on fire one we saw the first part of the year or the below average player we saw for that 2 month stretch. In our opinion we think the last few appearances are a sign of good things to come. Actually, we are back to where we started being able to get Streb at a great price.

 

Brooks Koepka- As long as we are talking about golfers who rank high in our Who’s Hot rankings, not too many players are ahead of Brooks Koepka. He has placed in the top 10 in both PGA events he entered in the fall including a tied for 8th in the Frys.com Open and a tied for 4th in the Shriners. In addition, he won the Turkish Airlines Open on the European Tour in early November. We are expecting big things from Koepka this season and think he might be under the radar for most after placing in only two top 10s all his PGA events of 2014. He may be a little bit more of a volatile players as far as making cuts, but he has the ability to make top 10s consistently and even win an event. It will be interesting to see where Koepka is priced on daily fantasy sites early in the season and whether we will be able to fit him on a roster alongside a couple studs like Stenson and Spieth. If so, that would be our play in a lot of cash games and tournaments alike.

Update: Right out of the gate we looked really good as Koepka won the Waste Management Phoenix Open the first week in February. Since then he has mixed results with a couple Top 20s. For a period of time Koepka was dealing with a nagging rib injury, which can be blamed for a few poor performances including a withdrawal at The Arnold Palmer Invitational. Koepka is a bomber and ranks 8th in driving distance on the PGA Tour. Overall he ranks 37th in Stokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 14th in Strokes Gained Putting, and 11th in Total Strokes Gained. Koepka is only 25 years old and has a tremendous amount of upside. We expect big things from him the rest of the year and for years to come. For you DFS players, Koepka is probably not the most ideal cash game player as he is very volatile, but for GPPs he is gold. As we have mentioned in prior articles, what makes Koepka so good is his ability to accumulate points because of his incredible scoring ability. To give you an example for those of you who play on Draftkings, during the Players Championship Koepka missed the cut, but even with only playing 2 rounds, he amassed over 50 points. That many points would be a respectable amount for four rounds of golf, but for 2 it is incredible. This is just an example of what kind of potential and ability Koepka has. Be sure that you roster him often throughout the rest of this year.

 

Alexander Levy (pronounced “La-vee” )– Is blistering hot and not too many have heard of this Frenchman. Since September, Levy has tied for 14th in his only PGA appearance in the WGC HSBC and on the European Tour tied for 11th at the Turkish Airlines Classic, 2nd at the BMW Masters, and won the Portugal Masters. He is currently ranked high in our Who is Hot rankings. Levy only plays a handful of events on the PGA tour, but keep his name in your back pocket for when he does, as a great sleeper option.

Update: This is a case of success on the European Tour not translating to success on the PGA Tour. One of the most difficult things to do is try and predict what European guys are going to continue their great play when they come over to the states. Clearly Levy has not had the success that we thought he would have as he has not placed better than 35th in any of the four events he has played on the PGA Tour this season. We think Levy’s success on the European Tour was a tease and we were wrong in thinking it would continue. It is hard to see any success for the Frenchman the rest of the season so probably best to just stay away.

 

Tony Finau- A PGA tour rookie, Finau played on the Web.Com tour last season and made 19 cuts in 23 events including 5 top 10s and a win in the Stonebrae Classic. Finau clearly has all the tools and has started with a bang making 4 cuts in 5 events so far on the PGA tour this season including a tied for 12th at the Frys.com, tied for 7th in the Shriners, tied for 14th at the McGladrey Classic, and tied for 7th in the OHL Classic at Mayakoba. Finau is listed as our top rookie in our Rookies to watch article. We will be rostering Finau often, especially while he is still undervalued and unknown by the general public.

Update: After a rocky start of the season, Finau has come roaring back the last couple of events with Top 20s to regain the great form he had during the Fall season and reward those who have stuck with the rookie. Finau is a ling ball hitter off the tee, ranking 2nd on the PGA Tour in driving distance, but not very accurate, ranking 185th in driving accuracy. For the rest of the season, the best times to roster Finau are on those long courses with not a tremendous amount of trouble for those stray tee shots. We think he will continue the inconsistency from tournament to tournament, but will come through with a couple more Top 10s this season on those courses that fit his game.

 

Other names to watch and consider in 2015:

Will Mackenzie- According to Mackenzie, last season his family life became a distraction and he ended the season miserably. This season he has rededicated himself and it shows. In his first three events he has made every cut including two Top 10s. If he stays focused he will be a real factor this season.

Update: Very inconsistent, but has shown flashes like in Puerto Rico (T6) and Wells Fargo (T20). We are not expecting much from Mackenzie the rest of the season. Nothing more than a lottery ticket in a GPP for you daily players.

 

Andres Gonzales- Has made five cuts in five appearances so far this season. Keep him in mind for daily fantasy golf cash games.

Update: He has made his last four cuts, but never anything spectacular. If you are looking for a cut-maker he is a decent option, but nothing more than that.

 

Jason Bohn- After missing the first cut of the fall at the Frys.com, Bohn has made four straight and two top 10s.

Update: A true GPP play for those of you daily fantasy golf players, meaning he is boom or bust. In his last two events he has two Top 10s. The two events before that he missed the cut. In the four events before that he had two Top 20s and two places in the 50s. We like Bohn’s prospects the rest of this season and he fits as a great sleeper option.

 

Jamie Donaldson- Playing extremely well on the European Tour, hopefully it will translate in PGA events. Since he plays mostly oversees, he might be undervalued so keep him in mind.

Update: In 11 events played Donaldson has 8 cuts made, five Top 25s, two of which were Top 10s. We actually really like Donaldson the rest of the season. Look for him to make a splash in one of the remaining three majors.

 

Chris Kirk- Not exactly an unknown after his run at the end of last season, so his price might be up. If it is still low, snap him up especially in daily fantasy cash games because he is extremely consistent and a cut machine. See the article Cash game vs. Tournaments section on the How to win playing daily fantasy golf to learn more about distinguishing between the two.

Update: Another tournament winner in our recommendations, which we are very pleased with. The start of his season was less than impressive, but five of his last six events have been terrific, with four Top 20s including that victory at The Crowne Plaza Invitational. His current form is fantastic so be sure to utilize him now and throughout the rest of the year.

 

David Hearn- Starting out this season real strong with 3 top 20s. He should be priced cheap and nobody will be choosing him early so he could provide some nice value.

Update: Hearn is actually a relatively easy player to predict his performances. He tends to play the same way in tournaments year after year, which makes him a great player for our purposes. Be sure to look at tournament history each week and if he has done well in the past, chances are good that he will in the present.

 

Rory Mcllroy- Ha,Ha gotcha. Actually we just didn’t want anybody telling us that we missed him when he wins this year. He has won before and he will win again. Newsflash he is good.

Update: Newsflash he is good.