Fantasy Golf European Tour Preview- Nordea Masters

Overview

This tournament is Sweden’s version of The Masters in that it brings out a fairly strong field (composed of a lot of Swedish born players) and was previously known as the Scandinavian Masters. This event has been played at a few different courses in the past, but has made Bro Hof Slott GC home of the Nordea Masters from 2010 to 2013. The course is long; two par 5’s over 600 yards, seven par 4’s over 450 (including the 18^th which is 472 yards!). The good news is that there are five par 5’s and even though they’re long, this still presents a lot of scoring opportunities for DFS purposes.

 TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

• The Course
• Bro Hof Slott Golf Club (Stadium Course)
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,607 (can play up to 8,056 yards)
• Greens: Bentgrass, speeds typically run 10-11’ on the stimp meter (considered moderately fast)
• Location: Stockholm, Sweden
• Expected scoring: The average winning score when played at this course specifically has been 15 under par and judging from the course pictures on the website (click the link above) the course is very links-esque and is very exposed to windy conditions coming off of Lake Malaren. There are also a lot of water hazards in play, which means we could see some blow up holes out of some of these guys.
• Past Champions (dating back to 2005):
• 2015 – [SWE] Alexander Noren -12
• 2014 – [THAI] Thongchai Jaidee -16 (playoff over [FRA] Victor Dubuisson & [SCOT] Stephen Gallacher)
• 2013 – [FIN] Mikko Ilonen -21
• 2012 – [ENG] Lee Westwood -19 (has won this event 3x)
• 2011 – [SWE] Alexander Noren -15
• 2010 – [SWE] Richard S. Johnson -11
• 2009 – [ARG] Ricardo Gonzales -10
• 2008 – [SWE] Peter Hanson -9
• 2007 – [FIN] Mikko Ilonen -6
• 2006 – [SCOT] Marc Warren -10 (playoff over [SWE] Robert Karlsson)
• 2005 – [AUS] Mark Hensby -22 (playoff over [SWE] Henrik Stenson)

KEY STATS TO TARGET

• Strong Emphasis – Driving Distance, P5 Scoring (for players who have played on the PGA Tour)
• Important – Scrambling, Putts per GIR

European Tour statistics are very bland and not very detailed and tell even less of a story than the robust amount of stats PGATour.com provides, with that being said, a course that plays this long should play into bombers’ hands.

STRATEGY

Until these fields become stronger (which may never happen), I think the best way of constructing cash lineups will be to target the $9k-8k range for 3-4 players and fill in your favorite two players from the $7,900-$7,000 range. For GPP’s I’ll be continuing to experiment with a Stars & Scrubs approach as well as balanced until I can start to see some consistency out of the lesser known players in the field (naturally you’ll want to take advantage of any pricing errors on DraftKings part like last week with Kiradech, and I’ll be sure to point out players I feel are severely underpriced). This week I think you’ll want to build teams around 2-3 Swedish born players based on the amount of past champions with Swedish blood.

For access to all of our top picks this week, sign up for our European Tour Premium Membership.

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The Picks

STARS

Lee Westwood (DK $11,300) – If you’re not into playing someone with less than poor course history and sketchy current form, then all you have to do is drop down from Stenson to Westy. A three time champion of this event, Westwood had a shot at winning last week, but couldn’t get the job done as Chris Wood pretty much ran away with the tournament.  

• Course History: 1^st (2012)
• Form: 15^th – 10^th – 2^nd – T38 – MC – 64^th
• Stats: 45 Stroke Avg, 55.36% – DA, 288.38 yards – DD, 63.89% – GIR
• Other – As you can see above, the stats provided don’t really tell you how a player is playing compared to others, as well as there’s minimal detail in the putting stats. Just know that Westy has good course history and good current form, usually when those two match up it’s a good indicator to play that player.

 

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $10,200) – Ty has been pretty horsey this year only missing one cut out of 10 events and not only is he making cuts, but he’s finishing in the Top 15 (two of those have been Top 10’s). Unfortunately I have a feeling the public will be onto Mr Hatton this week, but make no mistake, his play is warranting his price this week.

• Course History – N/A
• Form – 7^th – 5^th – 13^th – 12^th – MC
• Stats – 26 – Stroke Avg (lowest in the field), 62.18% – DA, 294.02 yards – DD, 69.93% – Greens In Regulation
• Other – He may be this week’s Bradley Dredge (MC last week and was fairly highly owned considering his good current form). Regardless of the amount of lineups I play this week, I’ll make sure he’s on half of them in GPPs.

 

 Rikard Karlberg (DK $9,700) – Rikard is a bomber, who hits almost 70% of the greens he sees on average. His putting average this year is the lowest it’s been since 2012, and the reduction in putts per round is probably the direct result of his success this year.

• Course History: 4^th – MC – MC – MC
• Form: 2^nd – T10 – T21 – T8 – T25 – T40 – MC – T66
• Stats:63 – Stroke Avg (9^th overall), 54.29% – Driving Accuracy, 294.42 yards – Driving Distance, 68.15% – GIR
• Other – Karlberg has been crushing it in the figurative and literal sense. I think people will be hesitant to pay this much for a player they know nothing about, and for that reason would make him part of my core GPP plays this week.

 

VALUE PLAYS

 

Scott Hend (DK $8,200) – If you played Hend last week, you’re probably feeling sick to your stomach from his poor play on Sunday as well as seeing the price hike this week. I think it’s a good week to pretty much ignore the prices of guys that were vastly underpriced last week due to it being the first week of Euro Tour DFS, and Hend falls into that category.  

• Course History: MC – 4^th – 54^th
• Form: 15^th – MC – 12^th – 6^th – 4^th – MC – 58^th – WIN – 63^rd – MC
• Stats: 48 – Stroke Avg , 47.68% – DA, 298.91 yards – DD, 67.36% – Greens in Regulation
• Other – Hend’s play this year has been much better of late, but as you can see he’s been a bit unpredictable. Still, at $8,200 I assume several sharp people will be on him for both cash & GPP and his length off the tee should be a positive this week.

 

Richard Bland (DK $7,600) – I mean, the name is just too easy to not make a joke about, but looking at his recent form it appears Mr. Bland is anything but. I took a flyer on him last week and will do the same again this week. I didn’t actually see him play a shot during coverage, but I’m sure a lot of that had to do with the bigger names in the field making noise for the majority of the first three days of the event.

• Course History: 37^th – 22^nd – MC – MC
• Form: 65^th – 23^rd – 3^rd – 19^th – 11^th – MC – 6^th
• Stats: 83 – Stroke Avg, 60.40% – Driving Accuracy, 284.92 yards – Driving Distance, 69.20% – GIR
• Other – I’ll be rolling him out in cash & GPP’s this week based solely on his driving distance numbers and current form.

 

Felipe Aguilar (DK $7,600) – Another player I saw exactly zero shots of last week, yet finished in the Top 40, Aguilar appears to have the game to hang around for four days even if he makes a couple costly double bogeys here and there. Looking at his DK scores over the past four events I really like what I see as he’s scored 18, 14, and 25 points in birdies and also threw an eagle in at the Irish Open.

• Course History: 9^th – 7^th – 60^th – MC
• Form: 37^th – 36^th – 2^nd – 58^th – MC – MC
• Stats: 67 – Stroke Avg, 67.26% – Driving Accuracy, 279.32 yards – Driving Distance, 68.83% – GIR
• Other – Course history and current form line up, you know the drill. He’ll be in both my cash & GPP lineups.

 

DEEP DIVERS

 

Fabrizio Zanotti (DK $7,800) – Fabreezey is 5/11 cuts made this year, but when he makes the cut he knows how to put his best foot forward – all of his cuts made have resulted in Top 25’s, including two Top 10’s in his last three events.

• Course History: 71^st – 35^th – 19^th
• Form: 7^th – MC – 9^th – 16^th – MC – MC – MC – 23^rd
• Stats: 60 – Stroke Average, 70.69% – Driving Accuracy, 277.81 yards – Driving Distance, 69.73% – GIR
• Other – He has too many missed cuts for my liking for cash games, but deserves some consideration for GPP’s this week considering the upside he’s shown this year.

 

Sebastien Gros (DK $7,300) – Gros missed the cut last week, but prior to that had been riding a six consecutive cuts made streak and has the game to shine here. Ranking “4^th” in Driving distance (I put the quotes there because he has more recorded drives than anyone in the Top 5 and it’s not even close, he should be ranked 1^st in DD) gives him a nice edge on the field considering the length of this course. If I was looking at him from the same perspective as I do players on the PGA Tour, I’d consider him cash & GPP worthy this week.   

• Course History – N/A
• Form: MC – 10^th – 47^th – 34^th – 19^th – 45^th – 20^th – MC
• Stats: 75 – Stroke Avg, 60.71% – Driving Accuracy, 314.25 yards – Driving Distance, 69.19% – GIR
• Other – If I were to compare him to anyone on Tour based on stats, I’d say he looks very similar to Justin Thomas in his rookie year (this is SeaBass’ rookie year).

 

David Lipsky (DK $6,500) – Lipsky is one of the few Americans that calls the European Tour his home tour and he’s having a pretty good year. Lipsky’s 9/12 in cuts made this year, with a best finish of T9 at The China Open where he scored 97 DK points. For the most part, his game looks like consistency is his strength as he’s not long off the tee, but seems to be middle of the pack as far as ball striking stats are concerned.

• Course History – N/A
• Form: T55 – T43 – T9 – MC – MC – T10 – T19 – T9 – T45 – T63
• Stats: 60 – Stroke Avg, 58.33% – Driving Accuracy, 278.92 yards – Driving Distance, 68.52% – GIR
• Other – If you’re a one lineup warrior that plays it in cash & GPP’s, Lipsky seems like a very solid value play this week. If you’re making multiple GPP lineups, I think anything over 10% will be overweight.

 

CALCULATED GPP DART THROWS

 

Henrik Stenson (DK $12,400) – Stenson’s game has been off this year and a lot of that has to do with his short game (on the PGA Tour, he ranks 174^th in approach shots from 75-125 yards. The good news is this course is very long and Hank shouldn’t have many approach shots from those yardages, instead (since he hits three wood off the tee all the time) he should be seeing approach shots from 175+ (where he ranks 24^th on Tour, he also ranks 1^st in approach shots from 125-175 yards for those keeping track at home).

• Course History – MC (2011)
• Form – MC (PLAYERS), MC (Wells Fargo), T24 (Masters), 2^nd (Shell), T3 (API), T11 (Valspar)
• Stats (PGA TOUR): 8^th – SG:T2G, 2^nd – Total Driving (66^th DD, 12^th DA), 15^th – P5 BoB Conv%, 11^th – Total BoB Conv%
• Other – The missed cuts are a concern, especially at THE PLAYERS (a course where Stenson has had previous success on, including a win), but when you add in the narrative of this being his “home event” II think you have to have a few Henrik teams in GPP’s this week and I really don’t mind him for cash purposes either as long as you’re very confident in the remaining five golfers you roster. Personally, I’m taking the wait and see approach with The Big Swede this week for cash purposes, but his pedigree alone warrants a dart throw on him this week.

 

Thomas Pieters (DK $9,400) – Pieters has been trending nicely all year and right when he should make his big move, something seems to get in the way (whether it’s his own game or someone else peaking at the *wrong time). That being said, TP is a bomber, an above average putter and can score with the best of them. His game is much more suited for this course than Wentworth last week.

• Course History: N/A
• Form: T27 – MC – T26 – 76 (API), 3^rd – MC – MC – T52 – 2^nd – T23 (HSBC)
• Stats: 23 – Stroke Avg, 52.20% – Driving Accuracy, 303.12 yards – Driving Distance, 67.09 – GIR
• Other – Pieters might be my favorite play this week. On courses where his game was best suited he’s 2/2 with a 2^nd and a 3^rd and this week might be the week he notches his first win in 2016.

 

Jorge Campillo  (DK $7,500) – Getting a cut maker (12/14 cuts made) at this price is good for cash and his Top 25 upside makes him ideal as a core play for GPP’s this week (he’s had seven Top 25’s this year).

• Course History: 59^th – MC
• Form: T15 – T19 – T34 – T38 – MC – T10 – T19 – T4 – T50
• Stats: 98 – Stroke Avg, 53.43% – Driving Accuracy, 292.4 yards – Driving Distance, 68.48% – GIR
• Other – Jorge’s a bomber off the tee and lacks the accuracy as most bombers do. Going with consistent cut makers who have some kind of experience on this course might be a good way to go about roster construction this week (that’s how I’ve been building lineups) and even though he’s only made two appearances, its two more than a lot of these other guys.

 

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

 

• Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

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