Fantasy Golf European Tour Preview- Lyoness Open

Pari (HitTheHighDraw)
By Pari (HitTheHighDraw) June 6, 2016 12:55

OVERVIEW

Originally debuted as the Austrian Open, this event was dropped as a European Tour event after six years only to be brought back in 2006. As with most country Open events, players from the host country take great pride in winning their home event and tend to play a bit harder/better to achieve success (this may lead to more Austrian heavy lineups this week). Players in the field that may have their eyes focused on traveling to the United States for the US Open next week include: Chris Wood, Bernd Wiesberger, Matthew Baldwin, Gregory Bourdy, Soren Hansen, Lee Slattery, Mikael Lundberg and Gary Stal (just another bit of narrative to keep in mind when building lineups). The course is considered “tough and a good challenge”, its relatively flat and includes water hazards on 13 holes and is exposed to windy conditions. Previous winning scores indicate it’s not as difficult as they make it sound on the website.

 TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

  • The Course
  • Diamond Country Club
  • Par: 72 – Four Par 5’s (506, 545, 607, 591 yards), Four Par 3’s (202, 159, 225, 184 yards)
  • Yardage: 7,417
  • Greens: Agrostis & Poa Annua blends, speeds typically run 10.5’ on the stimp meter (considered moderately fast, but will be bumpy in the afternoon due to seed growth during the day)
  • Location: Atzenbrugg, Austria
  • Past Champions (dating back to 2006):
  • 2015 – [ENG] Chris Wood -18
  • 2014 – [SWE] Mikael Lundberg -12 (playoff win over Bernd Wiesberger)
  • 2013 – [NED] Joost Luiten -17
  • 2012 – [AUT] Bernd Wiesberger -19
  • 2011 – [ENG] Kenneth Ferrie -12 [playoff win over Simon Wakefield)
  • 2010 – [ESP] Jose Manuel Lara -17 (playoff win over David Lynn)
  • 2009 – [ESP] Rafa Cabrera Bello -20
  • 2008 – [IND] Jeev Milkha Singh -15
  • 2007 – [AUS] Richard Green -16 (playoff win over Jean-Francois Remesy)
  • 2006 – [AUT] Markus Brier -18

For access to our key stats to target, strategy, and top picks this week, sign up for our European Tour Premium Membership.

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KEY STATS TO TARGET

  • Strong Emphasis – Driving Distance, P5 Scoring (for players who have played on the PGA Tour)
  • Important – Scrambling, Putts per GIR

European Tour statistics are very bland, not very detailed and tell less of a story than the robust amount of stats PGATour.com provides. If a player has PGA Tour stats, I’d put more confidence in trusting what you’re seeing versus what EuropeanTour.com provides.

 

STRATEGY

Until these fields become stronger, I believe the best way to construct cash lineups will be to target the $9k-8k range for 3-4 players and fill in your favorite two players from the $7,900-$7,000 range. This week I think you’ll want to build teams around former champions as well as players with good form over the past 3-4 weeks.

 

THIS WEEK’S SUGGESTIONS


STARS:

Joost Luiten (DK $11,900)  

  • Course History: 3rd – 1st – 3rd
  • Form: 27th – MC – 44th – 2nd – 2nd – MC – 6th – 15th – 8th
  • Stats: 70.27 Stroke Avg, 64.12% Driving Accuracy, 290.44 yards Driving Distance, 73.99% GIR
  • Other – Another player with great course history and solid form coming in, Luiten may be the most popular of the higher priced players this week since he didn’t play last year and isn’t coming off of a victory in his last start (like Wood, some players automatically fade a player coming off a win and since these guys aren’t anywhere near the likes of Rory, Day or Spieth, it might be the strategy to employ this week).

 

Bernd Wiesberger (DK $11,600)

  • Course History: MC – 2nd – 14th – 1st – 5th
  • Form: 15th – 59th – 49th – 28th – 34th – 42nd – 64th– 14th – MC – MC – 16th
  • Stats: 70.31 Stroke Avg, 55.87% Driving Accuracy, 291.02 yards Driving Distance, 71.83% GIR
  • Other – Wiesberger has very strong course history and is a familiar name to the regulars that have been playing PGA DFS over the past two years so I assume his ownership will be somewhat inflated, and for good reason. I’d venture a guess that playing in the US Open at Chambers Bay the week following this event may have played a part in his MC last year, but he did shoot a Friday 67 to show his hometown fans he wanted to stick around for the weekend.

Chris Wood (DK $11,500)

  • Course History: 1st 12th
  • Form: 1st – 54th – 34th – 42nd – 64th – 20th – 42nd – MC – 8th
  • Stats: 71.97 Stroke Avg, 54.12% Driving Accuracy, 288.81 yards Driving Distance, 65.81% GIR
  • Other – Fresh off his victory at the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth two weeks ago, Wood strolls in after taking a week off and will try to successfully defend his title. His form this year has been more down than up, but as defending champion of this event as well as consecutive events, he’s someone to consider in such a weak field.

ALSO CONSIDER – Gregory Bourdy (DK $10,600) & Richie Ramsay (DK $10,300) – his price tag looks a bit high considering how he’s been playing of late, but he has shown the ability to go low on a few occasions (weekend 67/66 at Volvo China).

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Richard Bland (DK $9,600) 

  • Course History: 52nd – 42nd – 36th – 8th – 39th
  • Form: 30th – 65th – 23rd – 3rd – 19th – 11th – MC – 6th
  • Stats: 70.94 Stroke Avg, 60.49% Driving Accuracy, 284.99 yards Driving Distance, 69.22% GIR
  • Other – I’m pretty sure I’m just going to recommend Mr. Bland every week until he disappoints. Current form and course history match up, so he’ll be a core play for me this week. The progression of worse finishes over the past three years is a bit of a concern, but that’s a silly trend that could easily be changed considering how well he’s playing this year.

 

Callum Shinkwin (DK $8,700)

  • Course History: 59th
  • Form: 48th – 19th – 13th – 24th – 67th – MC
  • Stats: 72.78 Stroke Avg, 64.19% Driving Accuracy, 304.32 yards Driving Distance, 68.23% GIR
  • Other – With a name like Shinkwin, I’m surprised I didn’t play him last week, but I’m not missing my chance this week. Shinkwin doesn’t have much course history since this is his 2nd year on Tour, but his current form is what’s really drawing my attention and seeing Top 15 upside over his previous four tournaments is also encouraging.

 

 Magnus A Carlsson (DK $7,900)

  • Course History: 19th – 30th – 8th
  • Form: 30th – MC – MC – 21st – 63rd – MC – 45th – 9th – MC – MC
  • Stats: 72.08 Stroke Avg, 59.14% Driving Accuracy, 285.66 yards Driving Distance, 71.17% GIR
  • Other – Magnus sounds like a Strongman Competitor, but his build is far from it. Aside from that he hasn’t played here for a couple years, but when he has showed up he’s placed well. His current form is a mixed bag, but the one trend I’m seeing is how he makes two cuts in a row before missing the next cut. That’s not much for analysis I know, but I’m hoping the trend continues.

 

ALSO CONSIDER – Johan Carlsson ($8,200) – you must respect the Johan… Current form includes 7/9 cuts made and three Top 20’s, Kristoffer Broberg (DK $7,700) I think he’ll be popular at this price (considering DFS regulars know his name, which may make him a good fade option for GPP’s. Dean Burmester (DK $7,500) – I expected him to be much more expensive this week, but not having any course history and a DQ last week may have played a role in the reduced pricing.He was in superb form about 2-3 months ago and has shown flashes since, just needs to get the putter back on board).

 

DEEP DIVERS:

 

Matthew Millar (DK $6,700)

  • Course History: N/A
  • Form: 14th – 14th – 17th – 23rd – 12th – MC – 3rd – 2nd
  • Stats: 72.83 Stroke Avg, 76.19% Driving Accuracy, 263.75 yards Driving Distance, 59.26% GIR
  • Other – #TeamCurrentForm enthusiasts should be privy to the middle aged Aussie and since he has no course history I’m hoping for low ownership as some people just aren’t willing to go outside their comfort zone on players they don’t know without any history. I’d like his GIR and DD to be a bit better too, but being a subpar statistical fit may also result in low ownership.

Matt Wallace (DK $6,600)

  • Course History: N/A
  • Form: 53rd – 1st – 1st – 1st– 26th – 1st – 2nd – 3rd
  • Stats: N/A
  • Other – Wallace is a bit of an unknown on the Tour (since this is his second Euro Tour event), but the kid has game. The 26 year old won four times on the Alps Tour this year and opened at the Nordea Masters with a 68. Winning can’t be taught, and even though the wins came on the “minor league Tour”, you have to tip your cap to four victories including one win by 8 shots.

ALSO CONSIDER – Renato Paratore ($6,800) – 32nd here last year, 5/6 cuts made in his last six [MC was last wk] including one Top 10), Daniel Gaunt (DK $6,500) – should be a part of #TeamCourseHistory representatives as he’s 4/4 here including three Top 35’s. Daniel Brooks (DK $5,900), Chiragh Kumar ($5,900) – current form is decent enough for a suggestion, 5/6 cuts made in his last 6 with two Top 25’s.

 

CALCULATED GPP DART THROWS:

 

Gary Stal (DK $6,900)

  • Course History: 9th – 25th– 52nd
  • Form: MC – MC – WD – MC – 57th – 62nd – MC – 18th
  • Stats: 72.53 Stroke Avg, 59.05% Driving Accuracy, 284.07 yards Driving Distance, 66.48% GIR
  • Other – I’m not going to lie, even I questioned this pick myself, but he has a decent sample size of course history and took a week off after his second consecutive missed cut. At his price, I’m ok with taking a shot especially considering his “statistical breakdown”

 

Scott Henry (DK $6,600)

  • Course History: 59th – 25th – 63rd
  • Form: 25th – 65th – MC – 34th – MC – 11th– 33rd – 56th – 49th
  • Stats: 72.00 Stroke Avg, 41.36% Driving Accuracy, 294.29 yards Driving Distance, 59.72% GIR
  • Other – The consistency of making cuts and cracking the Top 25 is really where Scotty’s value lies, it doesn’t hurt that he’s got some sample of course history, none of which includes a missed cut. The driving accuracy stat is a bit concerning, but hopefully his length off the tee negates that weakness.

ALSO CONSIDER – Jordan L Smith (DK $8,500) – no missed cuts this year, four Top 12’s including a win and a second place on the Challenge Tour and Mikael Lundberg ($6,600) – former winner, 22nd last year.

 

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

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Pari (HitTheHighDraw)
By Pari (HitTheHighDraw) June 6, 2016 12:55

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