Fantasy Golf European Tour Preview- BMW International Open

OVERVIEW

First off, this tournament has only been played at this golf club for two years (2012 & 2014) so course history will be very limited this week. Click here for our tournament history page. This will also be a week where building your lineups around PGA Tour veterans will be a key in building strong lineups. Guys like Henrik Stenson, Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Ernie Els, Danny Willett, Sergio Garcia, Martin Kaymer, Retief Goosen and Padraig Harrington have all played very well in this tournament (not just at this course).

 

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

 

• The Course
• Golf Club Gut Laerchenhof
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,228
• Greens: Agrostis & Poa Annua blends, speeds typically run 10.5’ on the stimp meter (considered moderately fast, but will be bumpy in the afternoon due to seed growth during the day)
• Location: Pulheim, Germany
• Past Champions (dating back to 2006):
• 2015 – [ESP] Pablo Larrazabal -17 over Henrik Stenson
• 2014 – [PAR] Fabrizio Zanotti -19 playoff over Rafa Cabrera Bello, Gregory Havret, & Henrik Stenson
• 2013 – [SAF] Ernie Els -18 over Thomas Bjorn
• 2012 – [ENG] Danny Willett -11 playoff over Marcus Fraser
• 2011 – [ESP] Pablo Larrazabal -16 playoff over Sergio Garcia
• 2010 – [ENG] David Horsey -18 over Ross Fisher
• 2009 – [ENG] Nick Dougherty -22 over Rafael Echenique
• 2008 – [GER] Martin Kaymer -15 playoff over Anders Hansen
• 2007 – [SWE] Niclas Fasth -13 over Bernhard Langer
• 2006 – [SWE] Henrik Stenson -15 playoff over Retief Goosen & Padraig Harrington

 

STATS TO TARGET

 

• Strong Emphasis – Driving Distance, Greens In Regulation, Putting Avg
• Important – Scrambling

European Tour statistics are very bland, not very detailed and tell  less of a story than the robust amount of stats PGATour.com provides. If a player has PGA Tour stats, I’d put more confidence in trusting what you’re there seeing versus what EuropeanTour.com provides.

For access to our key stats to target, strategy, and top picks this week, sign up for our European Tour Premium Membership.

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STRATEGY

Until these fields become stronger, I think the best way of constructing cash lineups will be to target the $9k-8k range for 3-4 players and fill in your favorite two players from the $7,900-$7,000 range. This week I think you’ll want to build teams around former champions as well as players with good form over the past 3-4 weeks.

 

STARS:

 

Sergio Garcia (DK $11,900)

• Course History: 12^th – 29^th  
• Form: T5  – WIN – 54^th – 3rd
• PGA Tour Stats: 13^th – SG: OTT, 4^th – SG:APP, 11^th – SG:T2G, 26^th – DD, 1^st – GIR, 14^th – Birdie Avg, 12^th – Par Breakers, 30^th – P3 BoB, 18^th – P4 BoB, 38^th – P5 BoB
• Other – Sergio’s where I’ll be starting my cash lineups this week assuming he’s over his illness. His history here is ok, but I’m looking for a cut maker with decent upside and Sergio fits the bill. He might not be the spring chicken he once was, but make no mistake, he’s a strong play in this field regardless of any fatigue from the US Open.

Danny Willett (DK $11,300)  

• Course History: 8^th – WIN – 64th
• Form: T37 – 3^rd – 23^rd – MC
• Stats:19 Stroke Avg – 55.95% DA – 288.10 yards DD – 71.30% GIR – 28.92 Putts Per Rd
• Other – Danny’s probably only here because this is a fairly popular event on the Euro Tour. I think we throw out how he played last week as an outlier based on being paired with Rory & Rickie for two days and basically just grinding through the weekend. His history here is solid, my only concern is fatigue from the grind of playing in what seemed to be the weirdest US Open in my memory. I’d reserve this play for GPP’s only this week.

Joost Luiten (DK $10,100)

• Course History: 38^th (2012)
• Form: 6^th – 27^th – MC – 44^th – 2^nd – 2^nd
• Stats: 25 Stroke Avg – 63.39% DA – 291.20 yards DD – 74.19% GIR, 29.73 Putts Per Rd
• Other – I think it’s time to start giving Joost more credit than I have been. He’s been playing extremely solid on the Euro Tour this year and I think it has more to do with his own expectations on this Tour versus playing on the PGA Tour which is something you can’t see when looking at statistics. I’d be fine with playing him in cash or GPP’s this week considering how well things have been going.

ALSO CONSIDER – Henrik Stenson (DK $10,800) – Stenson withdrew from the US Open last week which caused a ruckus on Twitter because of DraftKings’ change in how points are scored for players who WD mid-round, then he went on Twitter and made up some excuse about his back or his neck or his neck and his back. Either way, he’s a course horse and deserves to be considered this week. 

 

VALUE PLAYS:

 

Rikard Karlberg (DK $9,600) 

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 7^th – 2^nd – 10^th – 21^st – 8^th
• Stats: 56 Stroke Avg – 54.45 DA – 294.76 yards DD – 67.32% GIR – 28.56 Putts Per Rd
• Other – Karlberg may not have been a household name when DraftKings introduced the Euro Tour contests, but he should be by now. He hasn’t finished outside the Top 25 since I’ve been keeping an eye on him and has really made a case for the title of most consistent Swedish player in 2016. He seems to do a lot of things well and with some big names in the field this week we’re getting a very good player at a decent price.

 

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $9,500)

• Course History: 22^nd (2014)
• Form: 20^th – 7^th – 5^th – 13^th – 12^th
• Stats: 39 Stroke Avg – 62.31% DA – 294.13 yards DD – 69.44% GIR – 29.03 Putts Per Rd
• Other – Like Karlberg, Hatton has been a solid cut maker with good upside every week since the beginning of Euro Tour DFS. There was a little hesitation on my part in the beginning because of how he played in limited PGA Tour events, but he’s proved he’s worth investing in while playing overseas. Regardless of where you think his ownership will be this week, I don’t think it’s smart to fade a guy who’s been playing as well as Hatton is at the moment.

 

 Ross Fisher (DK $9,300)

• Course History: 62^nd – 8^th – 18^th – 3^rd – 32^nd
• Form: 6^th – MC – 54^th – 44^th – 16^th – 6^th
• Stats:24 Stroke Avg – 62.08% DA – 296.60 yards DD – 71.41% GIR – 30.21 Putts Per Rd
• Other – Ross had a little blip a few weeks back when he missed the cut, but prior to that he had been perfect all year. He comes in with 9/10 cuts made and has shown Top 10 upside a few times this year. I think Ross makes for a great cash game play as well as a core GPP play this week given his success on this track and form coming off the missed cut.

 

ALSO CONSIDER –Bernd Wiesberger (DK $9,000), Andrew Johnston (DK $8,200) – BEEF looked overwhelmed last week at the US Open, but he made the cut and even made a decent run on Sunday so there’s some optimism there. Like a lot of young budding stars of the European Tour, I think being back on his side of the pond will be good for him and we’ll see a bounce back to the first page of the leaderboard this week. Alex Cejka (DK $7,500) – I’m not sure how DFS regulars will treat Cejka on the Euro Tour, but his history here can’t be ignored (12^th, 66^th, 10^th, 27^th, 5^th). He hasn’t played exceptionally well on the PGA Tour on a consistent basis, but maybe heading home will be the equalizer this week. Richard Bland (DK $7,400) – Another week, another Richard Bland siting in my article. He continues to make cuts, which is something I think gets lost when constructing lineups (since a lot of people are focusing on Top 15’s, Top 10’s and wins. Anything inside the Top 30 seems like a reasonable projection this week. Marcel Siem (DK $7,300)

 

DEEP DIVERS:

 

Sebastien Gros (DK $7,400)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: 23^rd – MC – 10^th – 47^th – 34^th – 19^th – 58^th – MC
• Stats:75 Stroke Avg – 60.03% DA – 314.86 yards DD – 69.10% GIR – 29.94 Putts Per Rd
• Other – I’m hoping people forget about the bomber Gros this week since he doesn’t have any course history and has a few “less than desirable finishes” on his record this year. Make no mistake, Gros has game, and at this price all we’re hoping for is a made cut – anything better than a Top 50 is icing on the cake.

 

Mikko Ilonen (DK $7,200)

• Course History: 51^st – 16^th – 13^th – MC – MC
• Form:  20^th – MC – MC – MC – 13^th – 45^th
• Stats:50 Stroke Avg – 53.22% DA – 287.26 yards DD – 67.54% GIR – 29.53 Putts Per Rd
• Other – The missed cuts may cause some concern, but Mikko has been playing the game for a while and knows how to make the best of bad situations. Since he has a few missed cuts in his history and current form, I’m only suggesting him as a GPP play this week. He’s a guy that’s seen life on both tours and as mentioned in the overview, that’s something I’m taking into consideration this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Richard Green (DK $6,600), Gregory Havret (DK $6,800) – On paper Havret seems like the poor man’s Danny Willett, without the green jacket. He hits greens just over 70%, hits the ball roughly 280 yards off the tee and 7/10 times he hits the fairway off the tee as well. I’m not saying you should expect Danny Willett-like results, but the similarities in their statistics seemed worth mentioning. Tjaart Van Der Walt (DK $6,600) – His current form is why he’s highlighted (as well as his price). Coming in with back-to-back Top 10’s seems like an optimal time to continue to ride the hot hand, but if I’ve learned anything over the past two years playing DFS it’s that when a value play sets up like this, he might be on the verge of Tjaart’ing himself on Friday (I hope that’s not the case).

 

CALCULATED GPP DART THROWS:

 

Callum Shinkwin (DK $7,000)

• Course History: N/A
• Form: MC – 48^th – 19^th – 13^th – 24^th – 67th
• Stats:94 Stroke Avg – 63.56% DA – 304.62 yards DD – 67.81% GIR – 30.97 Putts Per Rd
• Other – Shinks didn’t quite live up to his projection the last time out, but I’m not one to hold grudges (especially against young talent). Instead, I’m looking at the missed cut as a blessing in disguise as most DFS players turn their back after a “good play” misses the cut (especially on the Euro Tour). He’s had some time to get out to the range, work with his coach and focus on the goal – which is making us (and himself) some money this week (might not be his actual goal, but that’s what I’m going with).

 

Anders Hansen (DK $6,400)

• Course History: 22^nd – 2^nd – 44^th – 46^th – MC – 40th
• Form: N/A
• Stats:82 Stroke Avg – 68.83% DA – 277.84 yards DD – 66.91% GIR – 29.13 Putts Per Rd
• Other – Anders is highlighted here mainly because of his history, but I also like the fact that he has no current form to speak of which may thwart our competition this week. The 45 year old has been doing this for a while now and there’s one thing I know about how most DFS players think when constructing their lineups – they don’t like taking old guys, especially old guys they aren’t familiar with. Given the nature of his form, I wouldn’t go super heavy on Hansen this week, but if you’re making 10 lineups I think he deserves a spot in 2-3 of them.

ALSO CONSIDER – Robert Karlsson (DK $6,900) – Hasn’t been making many cuts this year, but has some good course history (22^nd – WIN – 13^th – 47^th – MC). Robert Dinwiddie (DK $6,200) – 7/13 cuts made, no course history, but has made his last four cuts in a row with his best finish being a 10^th at the Lyoness two weeks ago. Magnus A Carlsson (DK $7,000) – Also finished T10 at Lyoness following a T30 at the Nordea Masters, has shown flashes of strong game with a T9 at the Perth International.

 

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

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