Fantasy Football Cheatsheet, Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts

Most of you know us as golf experts and we are, but long before we played fantasy golf, football was our fantasy passion.  Zach and I started playing fantasy football in the late eighties, long before it became the juggernaut it is today.  Over the years I have played in many leagues from home leagues to some of the biggest high stakes leagues.  I have won  leagues in both the FFPC and NFFC. I have also had success playing DFS football as well. Last year I was fortunate enough to win over $150,000 during the football season.  In week 1 I took 2^nd out of 113,818 entries in the main $20 GPP and 6^th out of 1,436,510 entries in the $3 GPP.

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As many of your season long fantasy football drafts start getting underway, I wanted to give you a cheatsheet to work off of as well as some breakout, sleeper, and bust candidates for this coming season.

Many of you understand the importance of handcuffing your key runningbacks, but I just wanted to reinforce how essential the strategy is to your success as a season long fantasy football player.  Runningback is the most physically punishing fantasy postion and we see year in and year out, rb’s in droves heading to the injury report.  Although we often draft a runningback based upon their ability, more often than not other factors play a role in their success.  These would include a run heavy coach, dominant offensive line, terrific offense that just gets more chances in the red-zone for their runningbacks, etc.  All of those aspects, outside of sheer ability of the starting RB would also apply to the back-up running back.  Hell, I have won league championships in high stakes leagues with deep rosters, because I drafted certain teams back-up runningbacks, even if I didn’t have their starter.  What I am saying is if you draft a top flight RB, it is the cheapest insurance you will ever buy to pick up their back-up late in the draft.

Fantasy Football Draft Cheatsheet:

Primed for a breakout season:

Amari Cooper (WR-OAK)- There has been statistical analysis to show that wide receivers hit their peak in year three of their career.  Cooper, entering his third year has amassed an incredible amount of yardage in his first two seasons (ninth most in history of players in their first 2 season).  The big problem with Cooper becoming an elite fantasy scorer is his lack of touchdowns.  I believe this year that changes and Cooper receives more looks in the red-zone from the NFL’s highest paid player, his QB Derek Carr.

Michael Thomas (WR-NO)- Despite the fact that he led the high powered Saints offense in targets (121), catches (92), and red-zone targets (19) and scored the 7^th most WR PPR points last year, I am willing to say that Thomas is still not being drafted as high as he should in most high stakes leagues and certainly not in home leagues.  The departure of Brandin Cooks (117 2016 targets)  is really the cherry on top for the potential that Thomas has this season.

Kirk Cousins & Terelle Pryor (QB&WR-WASH)-  Last season we saw how talented and athletic the former Ohio State QB is.  In an abysmal Browns offense, Pryor was able to finish in the Top 25 in receiving yards and score five times.  He steps into a high-octane offense, and they need to be because their defense stinks.  The departure of D Jackson and Pierre Garcon free up a ton of targets and opportunities for Pryor.  In my opinion QB Kirk Cousins is incredibly under-rated as a fantasy QB. Last year he has finished in the top 10 for fantasy scoring qbs for the second straight year.  One of the deficiencies the Redskins have had is their red-zone efficiency, which is exactly where Pryor fits in beautifully.  He can run, he can catch, and he can also throw, and I expect him to put up points with all three this year.  In addition to Pryor, Cousins also has one of the leagues best tight ends in Jordan Reed and emerging Jamison Crowder to round out the weaponry.  I like the idea of skipping out on the big names at QB, while loading up elsewhere and grabbing Cousins later.  I would stack these two guys, especially in high stakes leagues where you need QB/WR combinations to win the big overall prize.

Keenan Allen (WR-LAC)- In his first three season Allen has only played 23 of the 48 games due to injuries. However, when he does plays he is a Top 10 receiver in football and capable of putting up monster numbers. If you patch together his last 16 games played he ranks fifth in the NFL in fantasy points scored.  Now if it were a chronic, consistent injury that Allen dealt with I would be more apt to ignore him, but his injuries have been pretty fluky (broken collarbone, lacerated kidney, and a non-contact torn knee ligament).  My adoration for Allen depends a lot on where you can get him in the draft or what you can pay for him in auctions.  If he is priced as a injury plagued wild-card, I would lock him up, but if others see the massive upside potential and bid him up, then you can pass.

Isaiah Crowell (RB-CLE)- The Browns brought in RG Kevin Zeitler and C J.C Tretter to beef up the already solid Cleveland offensive line.  Last season Crowell had nearly a thousand yards rushing and 40 receptions while only playing 55% of the offensive snaps.  This year Crowell will see increased volume and will outproduce his draft position in most leagues.  A true three down back with a ton of upside this year not being taken real early in most drafts yet.

Leonard Fournette (RB-JAX)- I was so desperate to have exposure to a Jacksonville RB on certain weeks last year that I actually owned T.J Yeldon and started him on a few occasions.  This year I can get a back a million times more talented than Yeldon, and has the potential to be in the Top 10 in carriers this year based upon the run first approach that the Jags will be taking this year, to avoid Bortles chucking the ball into defenders hands multiple times every game.  The only concern with Fournette is his injury potential, as he has had ankle/foot injuries for over a year now.  Fournette is a high risk/high reward play this year and one that will get a ton of red zone carries as well.

Hunter Henry (TE-LAC)- Last year the focus was on force feeding Antonio Gates the ball and despite that, Henry had 36 catches on 54 targets for 478 yards and 8 Tds.  That is not bad.  This season Henry should see increased volume.  In a position dominated by a few names (but keep in mind a ton of injury risk guys-Gronk, Reed, Graham), I like to wait on TE in snake drafts if I can get an emerging guy like Henry coming into his second year and under most people’s radars.

Zach Ertz (TE-PHI)-  For much of last season, I was baffled as to why Ertz was not more a part of the offense, especially with a rookie quarterback in need of a stable underneath passing game.   Never having caught more than 4 touchdowns in a season, Ertz is still valuable due to his high catch capability (75 in 2015 and 78 in 2016).  The addition of Alshon Jeffery will draw the attention of defenses as the Eagles had no WR threats last year and hopefully open up opportunities for Ertz this season.

 

Busts:

Jay Ajayi- (RB-MIA)  I am very concerned about his ability to play a full season with the violent nature with which he runs.  He has already dealt with shoulder, rib, and recently concussion issues.  On top of that Miami’s run blocking is nothing to write home about and if center Mike Pouncey cannot stay healthy it is in even worse shape.  Ajayi had a big year last year, but if you subtact the three 200+ yard games (2 against the Bills) he was a very average back. He is not incredibly adept at catching balls out of the backfield which is a detriment in PPR leagues, plus he is going as high as RB5 in some leagues.  I don’t love him, I don’t love his line, and  his injury potential scares me for the price I would have to pay for him this season.

Dak Prescott- (QB-DAL)- Absolutely everything fell into place for Prescott last year and he had a magnificent season.  That does not happen this year.  Don’t get me wrong, I think he is very talented and might have a solid year, but I have seen him drafted in the Top 10 Qbs in some high stakes drafts this pre-season and that is too high.  He will be playing without his bell-cow back (Elliott) for the first part of the season and defenses will have had an entire offseason to solve the riddle from last year.  I would still draft Prescott, I would just wait until the 14 or 15 guys I like more are gone and Dak most likely will not be around.

Ameer Abdullah- (RB-DET) Many people will see a number one back with a top flight quarterbacked offense and think, hey lets grab this guy.  Then you need to realize that he is a fumble prone guy who will lose red zone touches to fellow back Zach Zenner and passing down work to more explosive Theo Riddick.  I have watched this guy so many times and rarely am I impressed.  I don’t think the Lions offense as a whole will have a big year and I don’t think Abdullah will either.

Ty Montgomery (RB-GB)- An athletic, versatile back, who catches passes in a high octane offense, wait a minute why is this guy in the busts section? Don’t get me wrong, he is an explosive player, but he is not a true runningback and I have a feeling he will be hurt for much of this coming year.  Combine that with the fact that they do have a true runningback, who is very talented snapping at his heels (Jamaal Williams), I would pass on Ty this season.

LeGarrette Blount (RB-PHI)- I have never really liked Blount in fantasy, especially PPR leagues and that included when he was slamming it in from the 1 yard line all the time with one of the best offenses in football.  Now fast forward to now when he is not on nearly as good of an offense in Philly and won’t get a fraction as many looks from the 1.  He is a touchdown dependent guy and they just won’t be coming this year for him.

Marshawn Lynch- (RB-OAK) I seem to be in the minority in this camp as I have read a ton of analysts recommend him as a breakout performer this season.  Not having been a factor since 2014, he has never been a good pass catcher out of the backfield, so in PPR leagues he is even less valuable.  The only positive for me about Lynch is if he stays healthy all season, I really love the Oakland offense to have a big year, so Lynch could see goal line opportunities.  Still, I am not sold on him this season and will be passing on him.

Cam Meredith- (WR-CHI)- He was the go-to-guy without Alshon on the field, but he is not going to be the featured target if Kevin White can stay on the field.  I have White as one of my sleepers this year and frankly this offense is not going to be dynamic enough for two receivers to flourish.

 

Sleepers:

John Brown (WR-AZ)-  Two years ago Brown put up over a thousand yards receiving and seven touchdowns.  Last season he dealt with a concussion early and then complications with sickle-cell.  He still appeared in all but 1 game, but he did not see nearly the snaps as he did the year before (52% -78%).  Reports are that his treatment for the sickle-cell has improved his health overall, which is good news for a highly talented guy in an offense that does not have Michael Floyd anymore.  Larry Fitzgerald will undoubtedly be Carson Palmer’s #1 target, but there are plenty of balls available for Brown, especially deep balls, if he can stay on the field.

Joe Mixon (RB-CIN)-  Normally I am not a big fan of crowded back fields, but Mixon is an extremely talented runner, who if the coaches allow him the carries will rank among the league’s best running backs.  Not only is Mixon a terrific runner, but he is an outstanding receiver out of the backfield.  The obvious concern is what I mentioned if Jeremy Hill will pirate goal line touches and Gio Bernard will snag passing down catches.  It might not be in the first couple of weeks, but I think he will emerge as the bell-cow back in Cincy and they will have no choice but to feature him.

Jamaal Williams (RB-GB)-  You will see in the fade section that I am not a big fan of Ty Montgomery this year.  It would stand to reason that if I didn’t like a guy and thought he would be injured quite a bit, but was in one of the best offenses in the league, than I would like his back-up.  That is exactly the scenario for the rookie out of BYU,  Williams this season. He obviously isn’t as good of a receiver out of the backfield as Montgomery, but he is a better all- around runningback.  You may have to wait several weeks to reap the benefits of having snagged Williams way late in your draft or paid $1 for him in your auction, but when Montgomery goes down with an injury, you will be glad you read this column.

Kevin White (WR-CHI)–  The first two seasons of his career have not gone according to plan for the 7^th overall pick in the 2015 draft.  Injuries have limited White to only 4 games in those two years.  He will have a below average quarterback slinging him the ball, but with the absence of Alshon Jeffrey he should get some targets, especially considering the Bears will be down in most games this year and will need to pass.  Cam Meredith was the go-to-guy last season, but White is a specimen at 6-foot-3, 216 lb and ran a 4.35 40 at the combine. If you are willing to risk a very low floor for massive upside at the WR position, you should snag White.

Dalvin Cook (RB-MN)-  The Adrian Peterson era is over in Minnesota, Mckinnon just never materialized, and newly signed Latavious Murray just isn’t very good.  The Vikes didn’t use a first round pick on a guy they weren’t interested in being a featured back.  Cook is a complete back and is Florida States all-time leading rusher.  The offensive line was pretty disgusting last year, but this year they have improved a bit.  Bradford is a very capable quarterback that can move the offense and Cook should see the bulk of the work.

Austin Hooper (TE-ATL)- He certainly is not going to be a superstar in this league, but he does play on one of the best offenses in football.  Hooper became more of a factor in the offense late in the season last year and I expect that to carry over to this year. Matt Ryan tends to spread the wealth around quite a bit in the red-zone, which will benefit Hooper with some tds this season, I am predicting 6 from the Stanford alum.

Pierre Garcon (WR-SF)- Fresh off a great year in Washington where there were many mouths to feed, this season it appears he might be the only decent mouth in San Francisco.  This will not be a prolific offense, but Garcon should get a ton of targets.  I am not as thrilled about him in standard scoring leagues as he rarely finds the end-zone, but in PPR leagues I would give him a shot

Andy Dalton (QB-CIN)- It kind of pains me to say it because he has let me down a couple of times before, but considering how low his stock is coming into this season, I think Big Red is a buy.  Last year he was without A.J Green for parts of the year as well as Tyler Eifert.  He barely had any weapons around him and he still threw for over 4,000 yards.  This year he has a stud back in Mixon joining the offense and if his targets stay upright, I think he could sneak into the Top 13 QBs in fantasy points.

Kareem Hunt- (RB- KC)-  If I can get Hunt real late in a draft in a league with a deep bench, I am going to be drafting him regardless if I have Spencer Ware or not.  I like Andy Reid’s system for backs, but I do not love Spencer Ware.  It just feels like Hunt will emerge as the top back, if not immediately, eventually this season.