Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Honda Classic

The Honda Classic has the unfortunate spot in the schedule between Genesis and WGC Mexico and the Arnold Palmer and Players Championship, which is why the field is so weak. Most of the top players have played the last two weeks and will play the next two weeks, so this is naturally a good week off for them. Still we have an event and we have DFS, so we have interest. I heard from many of you last week who had very nice weeks having smashed your core of players. GPPs are not easy and we will continue to grind week in and week out trying to give ourselves a chance at the big payday. There is so much more to being a consistent winner playing GPPs than just identifying players and that is why I feel that FGI folks have such an advantage over the field. Roster Construction, Ideal salary cap targeting, aggregate ownership, strategic fading, targeting contrarian-high upside options are all extremely important factors that need to be incorporated into your lineup building. If you are not consistently incorporating those practices, be sure to check out all the articles we have up on the site that go in depth into all of those areas. Best of luck this week my friends!

Jeff’s Strategy & Core- Honda Classic-

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Over the past month we have been doing a lot of targeting bombers because the courses have been long and for the most part forgiving.  This week is a 180 degree difference from those courses as it is a much shorter 7,100 yards and there is a massive amount of trouble.  That is not to say we completely disregard those guys who have been playing well, it just means that we should not completely write off guys who maybe have not had the best results over the past month.  Florida golf is very different from West Coast golf. Be sure to consult the Player Database and identify those from the area and also the Turf Splits Tool to see who has more success putting on Bermuda than bent/POA.

The scoring at PGA National will not be nearly as plentiful as we saw on the West Coast swing. The winning scores the last several years have been -9, -8, -12, -9, and -6. There is a ton of trouble on this course (mostly water) and there are going to be blow-up holes. Whoever avoids those blow-up holes the best is going be the most successful. Scoring on the Par 5s is very important as well as there simply are not a ton of scoring opportunities elsewhere. You will see a few slight tweaks to my FGI Model this week, including the inclusion of BOW%. I often include this input on courses like PGA National where those guys who typical avoid trouble really have the advantage. I often use this input for U.S. Opens as well as some players might not typically be birdie machines, but on tough courses it is more about just saving par and avoiding the big numbers.

Because of the level of difficulty and massive amount of trouble, there is going to be that much more variance and unpredictability than even a normal week on the PGA Tour. You can truly see that if you analyze the tournament history page. Even the guys who have the best track records at PGA National over the past ten years have some really poor finishes mixed in. I naturally make a huge effort to be contrarian on a weekly basis, as you likely know if you have been reading my columns for a while, but this week I like to go to an even higher level than normal with the unpredictability the Honda Classic always has. Those guys that are talked up massively throughout the industry during the week and those that I think are going to be really popular are an auto fade for me this week. Anything can happen to anybody this week especially with this weak of a field and the historical madness that has happened here. We could easily see the winds kick up as well, which adds even more unpredictability. Even if you are wired to be a chalky DFS player (like Zachary) I encourage you to fight off the urge and be more contrarian this week. Also, I will not have large exposure to any of my players this week. I am going to avoid owning much more than 30% of anybody this week. I will try and target players with lower ownership so I don’t have to and still get to 2X overweight.

My FGI Model- 45% Current Form, 35% Key Stats, 12% Vegas, and 8% Course History. For stats- 20% SG:T2G, 5% SG:OTT, 15% SG:APP, 20% SG:P, 5% DA, 5% PROX, 10% PAR 5, 7% BOB, 8% BOW, and 5% SCRAM. I put 5% on scrambling, because it is hard to imagine not scrambling at all if you are in the mix on Sunday, but I am really downplaying that and SG:ATG this week as opposed to many of the last few weeks. There are so many hazards surrounding holes that you need to be accurate in your approach game, because you can’t scramble from the water. One way you can analyze this is by looking at the Rolling Stats tool and seeing who has a good tee to green, approach game, and putter while usually being held back with their around the green/short game.

For comp courses this week, I am using TPC Sawgrass (The Players), Colonial, and Harbourtown (RBC Heritage) All three are shorter courses, with a ton of trouble. TPC Sawgrass and Harbourtown both have Bermuda greens. TPC Sawgrass and Colonial do not generally have a ton of scoring. Be sure to look back at the leader boards and see who has done well there. You will see the same type of player and in many cases the same exact players that have done well at PGA National.

I am going to start with who I believe is going to be the major chalk this week and thus am going to strategically fade. Both Billy Horschel and Daniel Berger are coming off of two straight Top 10s. Heading back to their comfort zone in Florida on a track where both have had some success in the past. What makes them most appealing is their price this week in a very affordable range. I originally predicted they would be owned by around 20% of the field, but I think it might even end up higher having monitored the industry so far this week. I already talked about the unpredictability of this event and despite having some success here, both of these guys have missed the cut here a combined six times in thirteen appearances. Obviously both are capable of continuing their recent success, but with such high ownership this week, for myself, I am going to take the risk and fade them both in an attempt to be contrarian from the field.

A respectable T12 finish last week in Mexico for Gary Woodland after a couple duds at Farmers and Waste Management. Anytime you talk about a course where clubbing down is a thing, then Woodland suddenly enters the conversation because he has arguably the best 3-wood in the game today. Woodland hasn’t missed the cut here in his last seven appearances, which is highly unusual for anybody here. He has also had a couple of Top 10s here (2011 and 2017). His strengths are exactly those I want from a player this week, including a great approach game, solid tee to green game as whole, outstanding Par 5 scorer, and second best in the field in bogey avoidance. The only unfortunate thing about him this week is his ownership, which could approach 20%. Since I am not willing to go much above 30% for anybody, I realize I might only get to 1.5X overweight. 30-32%

There is no denying Justin Rose has been poor in his last two appearances (T56 at Genesis and MC at Farmers), but keep in mind that is a very small sample size and one he was traveling across the world for. With his immense talent he has the ability to pop anywhere at any time and what better place and time than when he is owned by under 15% of the field (hopefully). He hasn’t played here in a while, but in his three starts from 2010 to 2013 he recorded three straight Top 5 finishes, which is rare air on this difficult course. Generally a good putter (better on Bermuda), Rose should be able to eek out pars this week and avoid the blow-up holes. Its just tough to validate a $2k difference between him and Fleetwood. I am going to save some cap space and hopefully we get a bounce back in a contrarian spot.

Louis Oosthuizen could likely be the lowest owned top tier guy this week, but he has two Top 25s here in his last two appearances and is one event removed from an extremely hot run, which included three Top 5s. It was really only one terrible round for Louis last week in Mexico (3rd round 76) that made his result (T51) so bad. People have so much recency bias however I expect him to be only around 10% owned, so we can get to a full 2X at 22-24%.

Generally I don’t love owning a player coming off a victory the previous week, especially if it is your first tour victory, but Viktor Hovland is a rare creature. He didn’t get a win last year, but he rattled off several consecutive big finishes and he is capable of doing the same here after his win in Puerto Rico last week. Hovland dominates every phase of the game, with the exception of around the green play, which I have already talked about placing less emphasis on. He is very accurate off the tee and approaching the green and should be able to stay out of trouble. He is a reasonable $9,500 and it has become very popular to fade the previous weeks winner, so I don’t expect a ton of ownership. 25%-27%.

Shane Lowry has shown consistency and upside over the last six months having only missed one cut in his last nine events while recording five Top 15 finishes. He wasn’t bad in Mexico shooting 72-69-71-69, he just wasn’t able to rack up the birdies and post a real low round like many others. This week it is more about saving par than it is racking up birdies and Lowry is exceptional in bogey or worse avoidance (4th in the FGI Model). It looks as though he will be owned by under 15% of the field making him a good pivot off of Horschel or Berger, who could have double his ownership. Lowry is a Top 20 player in the world and certainly capable of contending this week. 25-30%

Only one missed cut from Sungjae Im (Genesis) since last years Open Championship is really appealing in a week where the cut is likely going to be a blood bath. Using my inputs for statistics in my FGI Model and sorting from best to worst, Sungjae ranks #1 in this field. Fueled by his excellent Par 5 scoring, Scrambling, and BOB%, he generally avoids big numbers on holes as well. Im is a better putter on Bermuda (.434 vs .26 SGP). He finished T51 here last year, but has emerged as a much better player since then and is now up to #34 in the world.

To put it mildly, Ben An has been tragic on the greens the last several events, even more than usual for him. The saving grace is that this week he goes back to Bermuda greens where he is better (-.317 vs -.598) and in his last three events he has putted less bad on bermuda by only losing .348 strokes putting in Phoenix on bermuda as opposed to -1.503 last week and -2.398 at Torrey both on POA. Despite his disasters on the greens he has still had decent finishes (T29 at WGC Mexico and T9 at Waste Management). This is attributable to his tee to green game, which has been on point (1st in SG:T2G over his last 12 rounds and 13th over his last 16). He finished T5 here in 2018 and T36 last year. He will likely be owned by 15% of the field, so I am going to own 25%.

I have heard exactly nobody recommend Ian Poulter this week and I expect his ownership to be lower than I initially estimated (likely under 10%). He has been extremely up and down over the past year or so, but finished T16 in Dubai and then T17 in Saudi Arabia in his last two events. He hasn’t been great at PGA National his last few times, but he did finish T3 in 2015 and has had some success at TPC Sawgrass in the past as well. Analyzing his rolling stats is not helpful as he simply does not have any measurable rounds in a reasonable timeframe having played mostly on the Euro Tour or in events that did not have shotracker. Historically Poulter is a guy who is accurate off the tee and approaching greens and can stay out of trouble. Nobody is going to own him, so just a 15% stake might get us to 2X. Just another contrarian option.

One of the better ball strikers in the game, Corey Conners usually gets lapped by the field because of his around the green game and putting. If he is hitting greens like he should here, the around the green issue won’t be a problem and he does putt much better on Bermuda then other surfaces (-.304 vs -.805). It has been a rough few weeks, but this should be a really good course fit for him. 20-25%

It isn’t a monumental call to own the defending champ of an event, but it doesn’t feel like Keith Mitchell is going to be that heavily owned. He putts exponentially better on Bermuda (-.017 vs -.631) and he his numbers and results have been good lately (8th in SG:OTT, 41st in SG:APP, 16th in SG:BS, and even 20th in SG:P). In Phoenix he finished T16 and Pebble T32. 20%

Matthew Nesmith has been on a roll lately having now posted four Top 30 finishes in a row, including a T11 at Pebble Beach and T6 in Puerto Rico. Over his last 16 rounds NeSmith ranks 36th in SG:T2G, 10th in SG:APP, 13th in SG:BS, and 4th in SG:P. Easily the weakest area of his game is AG:ATG (120th). I will have 15% exposure.

Three straight Top 25s for Harry Higgs and he has good tee to green numbers (31st in SG:T2G) and ball striking (T32 in SG:BS) over his last 16 rounds. He has also been rolling it nice on the greens (17th in SG:P). A guy I discussed in my Top Newcomers to Watch this season article, Higgs is playing very well lately. I am going to own 15%, even though I know I wont be 2X the field.

Talor Gooch has been playing better golf over the last several months having not missed a cut since Greenbrier, 11 events ago. In that time he has managed a T4 at the Houston Open, T17 at the AMEX, and T10 in his last outing at Riviera. Gooch is a very good ball striker and tee to green player, but the weakest area of his game (putting) has been respectable lately (26th in SG:P over his last 12 rounds). Gooch notched a T20 here last year as well. I think both he and Higgs are decent options in the low $7k range, but Gooch might be half Higgs ownership. 10% exposure.

Tom Hoge was scorching out of the gates in 2020 with a T12 at Sony, T6 at AMEX, and 5th at Farmers. He has since cooled a little, but still managed to make a couple cuts and finish T25 at Waste Management. Hoge has missed here at PGA National the last two years, but he has missed the cut a lot of places the last two years. Over his last 16 rounds he ranks 11th in SG:T2G, 3rd in SG:APP, 8th in SG:BS, and 5th in SG:P. $6,900 is really cheap for anybody who has any chance of competing in this field, so he is worth 15% for me.

Woodland $10,300
Rose $9,900
Oosthuizen $9,700
Hovland $9,500
Im $9,300
Lowry $9,100
An $8,800
Poulter $8,500
Conners $8,200
Clark $7,600
Mitchell $7,300
Higgs $7,300
NeSmith $7,200
Gooch $7,200
Burns $7,100
Hoge $6,900

A couple other options that I will be using this week in my larger lineup builds:

Van Rooyen $9,000
McNealy $7,500
Schenk $7,500
Burns $7,100
Redman $7,000
Long $6,800
Bramlett $6,700