Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Desert Classic

The PGA Tour is back on the mainland for the Desert Classic this week in Southern California and we have a lot of things going on this week with this tournament. This is one of the tournaments that has presented some of the biggest edges for us over the past four years, so it is important that we play it correctly.  I will talk about how I am going to be playing this week, which slates, which contests, and of course which players.  Before I dive into this week, let’s recap last week’s Sony Open.

What went right?  I have talked about it numerous times and addressed it in my Wednesday email last week about stacking tee times.  It appeared from the forecast last Wednesday night that neither tee time wave was going to see much of an advantage. However, weather is unpredictable and the forecast is not always correct.  That is the reason I always stack both sides of the tee times each week, just in case.  Last week was the perfect example as the pm/am wave actually ended up having a big edge and those players who were in that wave reaped the benefits.  If you stacked those teams with the pm/am you did very well Thursday and Friday and got a good share of those guys through the cut.  This was critical to cashing a bunch of my teams, especially when I failed to have Matt Kuchar at all in my core.  Outside of missing Kuchar, the rest of the core was actually solid.  Andrew Putnam, Marc Leishman, and Chez Reavie all finished Top 3.  Keith Mitchell (T16), Joel Dahmen (T22), Brian Gay (T22), and Scott Piercy (T33) where all good for their price.  Its funny, it felt like Justin Thomas played like complete garbage for four days and yet here he ends up T16. Don’t get me wrong that is far from what we needed from him as the highest priced player, its just crazy how when he plays poorly he is as good as just about everybody when they play great.  I will continue to roster Thomas and we will have T16 type weeks from him, but with his superior talent we will get a few wins as well.

What went wrong?  Obviously not having the winner of the tournament when he is owned by a quarter of the field pretty much eliminates any possibility of winning a large field GPP.  Even with several guys in the Top 3, Kuchar just scored too many points and it hurt that I decided to fade him.  I felt like his ownership was going to be quite high and outside of Mayakoba he has not shown any  huge upside in the last several years to make me fear that he would burn me for the fade. I was wrong and it hurt.  Most everyone in the core made the cut and performed fine, but Adam Scott, Gary Woodland, and Kevin Tway were awful and buried some of my teams.  I was a little concerned about Woodland having an emotional letdown after losing in Maui, but we have seen numerous times guys finish in the Top 5 at the TOC and then come into Sony and win.  The one that stands out most vividly in my head is in 2015 when Jimmy Walker had almost the exact situation and blew his lead to Patrick Reed at TOC in the final round and ended up runner-up and then turned around and won the following week at Sony.  I am not sure what to say about Adam Scott.  There is not a word that properly describes how atrocious he was last week.  In my mind he is not rosterable for the time being until we see that he can compete, because he was not competitive last week.

Overall a less than great week for me personally, but I am very happy to see so many FGI members do well.  Remember, just because I decide to fade a guy or roster a guy, it does not mean you necessarily have to.  Trust in your process and your research.  If all of your arrows are pointing a certain direction go with it.  This column is simply applying all of my many years of experience playing GPPs and sharing strategies, thoughts, roster composition, ownership, and everything else we talk about each week.  I certainly am far from correct all the time.  Nobody is, which is why GPPs are so damn difficult to win.  Even the best GPP players anywhere are only hitting a couple big weeks a season.  Be sure you are disciplined with your weekly bankroll and that you stick around long enough for those big weeks.  I really like our prospects this week with the desert classic.

Good luck!

Jeff’s Strategy & Core- Desert Classic-
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