Tournament Preview- Arnold Palmer Invitational

The Florida swing comes to a conclusion this week, as the PGA Tour stops at Bay Hill Club for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The King has owned this club since 1974 and the tournament has held his name since 2007. The Arnold Palmer Invitational is one of only five tournaments given invitational status by the PGA Tour, and consequently it has a reduced field of only 120 players. Bay Hill is a par 72 and measures 7,419 yards, which ranks it as one of the longest tracks on tour all year. It features four par 5s and four par 3s.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational hosts 15 of the Top 30 players in the world including Bubba, Henrik Stenson, Jason Day and world #1 Rory Mcllroy making his first appearance here.

Last year Matt Every earned his first PGA tour victory by, erasing a four-shot deficit on Adam Scott to win by one stroke. Every closed with just a 2-under-par 70, including bogeys on the final two holes that opened the door for Keegan Bradley who put together a late charge to threaten a playoff. After birdies at Nos. 16 and 17, Bradley faced a 30-foot birdie try but the putt stayed left of the hole and Every breathed a sigh of relief. Each of the past three years here at Bay Hill the winning score has been 13 under par.

Last week Fantasy Golf Insider’s Zach Turcotte talked in his Daily Spin article about doubts from so called experts in this industry about the Strokes Gained statistic. We even heard somebody state that he felt it was a media ploy by the PGA Tour. Another uninformed person said that it was too new of a statistic to be reliable. We have done a tremendous amount of research into this statistic and looked at the results, see Do Statistics Really Matter in Fantasy Golf. Bottom line, this is the most meaningful statistic in golf today. For those of you who are not familiar, Strokes Gained was developed by an Ivy League professor named Dr. Mark Broadie, and detailed in his book Every Shot Counts. Every shot on the PGA Tour for more than 10 years has been compiled to contribute to it. Now that we know how amazingly effective and meaningful Sabermetrics has become in baseball after being developed by Bill James. We wonder how people could have been so resistant and ignorant to that revolutionary idea. Strokes Gained is in the same light as Sabermetrics in predicting success and we want to be revolutionary like Bill James and Billy Beane. If any of you have doubts, do three things- Read our articles Do Statistics Really Matter in Fantasy Golf, read Dr. Mark Broadie’s book Every Shot Counts, or just look back at the leaderboards for every tournament in the last several years and compare it to the leaders in Strokes Gained for that same tournament. You will see what we are talking about and question, like we do, the information coming from others out there who call themselves “experts”. With that being said, we are always looking closely at Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green and Total Strokes Gained every single week. In addition, this week we are going to look at a combination of driving distance, greens in regulation, and putting. Driving distance will be important because it is a long course and there is not a tremendous amount of danger, unlike last week at Copperhead. This will be more comparable to Doral in that the drives off the beaten path will not be punished, and we saw who did well at Doral- Dustin, Bubba, and JB Holmes. Historically guys who have putted well at Bay Hill have finished well. As a matter of fact the Top 11 guys in putting last year at Bay Hill all finished in the Top 20, with winner Matt Every finishing 8th in putting and runner-up Keegan Bradley being the 3rd best putter. Not many people are talking about putting this week, but it is as important here as it is in any tournament this year.

Last week at the Valspar, we went with a more balanced approach and we are glad we did, because our value picks were extremely good and our studs were extremely disappointing. Jim Furyk and Matt Kuchar let us down so much as they finished T40 and T33 respectively. Our value picks Kevin Na T10, Martin Laird T33, Jason Dufner T24, and Will Mackenzie T44 all made the cut. Daniel Berger let down us and a lot of people down by missing the cut by a stroke. Our sleepers were solid with Will Wilcox jumping up with a T33 and Adam Hadwin making the cut and Steve Wheatcroft missing. For Wilcox’s price in DFS that was a really good finish.

We will continue to out-work everybody in the industry to make our members successful and profitable in season long and daily fantasy golf. As always, stick to solid lineup building, diversification, smart game selection, and disciplined bankroll management. See: How to win playing daily fantasy golf.

A key factor that we analyze every week is Tournament History. Check out our Tournament History page to see exactly who has had success in the past in this tournament.

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We like a value approach this week as the top guys are not thrilling us too much so we will mention more middle priced players than usual.

 

Top Studs:

 

Rory looks to be too much of a question mark for us this week. In DFS he is extremely expensive and he has not showed us much so far this year on the PGA Tour. Not to mention this is his first appearance at Bay Hill, gives us further reason to think the reward is not worth the risk. He would need to be in the Top 3 for him to payoff and to tell you how difficult that is to do, Rory placed in the Top three in less than a third of his PGA events last year, which was an incredible year.

Henrik Stenson– After coming over to the PGA Tour this season, his two performances have been spectacular with a 4th last week at Valspar and a T4 at the WGC Cadillac. His tournament history at the Arnold Palmer Invitational isn’t bad either with a 15th in 2012, 8th in 2013, and 5th last year. Stenson’s game fits well for Bay Hill as he is long off the tee and a dynamic irons player. What has held him back in the past is his putter, and that looks to be improving. We like Stenson a lot this week, but we believe so will a lot of others, so if you want to own him expect not to be the only one.

Bubba Watson- We like that Bubba ranks 1st in Total Strokes Gained and 4th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green. We also like that he is a long ball hitter on this course (2nd in driving distance). One thing that people don’t talk about however is Bubba’s putting and he has actually been really good (15th in Strokes Gained Putting). We also like his current form, which could not be much better, 3rd at WGC Cadillac, 14th at Northern Trust, and 2nd at WM Phoenix Open. The only thing that puts a little doubt in our minds is how he looked last year in the first round at the Arnold Palmer, it was down-right embarrassing. Bubba looked like a clown shanking the ball all over and posting an 83 in the first round before withdrawing and high-tailing it out of Bay Hill. The three years prior to that he played well and took 14th, 4th, and 24th. We are not sure whether Bubba was hungover or what last year but we are going to chalk it up to a fluke and think he will bounce back this year and try and redeem himself to Arnie this week. UPDATE – Bubba Watson has withdrawn from the Arnold Palmer Invitational due to the death of a close friend

 

Top Value Picks:

 
J.B Holmes- Maybe more of a stud, but you can decide.  Let’s start with the good things about JB this week. His current Form- 2nd at WGC Cadillac, T22 at Northern Trust, T10 at Pebble Beach, and 2nd at Farmers. 2- Tournament History- 8 for 8 in made cuts including a 10th in 2014, 29th in 2012, 47th in 2011, and 21st in 2010. Statistics- 7th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 24th in Total Strokes Gained, 14th in Driving Distance. Long Hitter, Long Course. Now for the Bad thing- his ownership in DFS. We expect him to be one of the most owned players across the DFS industry this week, which over the past several weeks has been an extreme negative (See: Fredrick Jacobson, Jamie Donaldson, and Jim Furyk). Our best advice depends on how many different teams you enter, you might want to roster him on some and fade him on some.

Daniel Berger- We know, you may be asking, “are you nuts”? Did you not see how Berger did last week when he was supposed to do so well? Yes, we did, and it is not going to affect our decision this week or into the future. See, that is where people make a huge mistake, by holding a grudge. We hear people say, “so-and-so burned me before so I will not roster them again”. This is a foolish mentality because even the best players in the world have off weeks and if all the other metrics line up for them the following week, it becomes the best time to roster them. People will be avoiding Berger and his salary in DFS has dropped. That is good for us. Berger had been playing stellar up until last week when he missed the cut (although only by 1 stroke). Before that Berger had a runner up at Honda, T10 at Pebble Beach, T24 at The Farmers, T10 at WM Phoenix Open, and T13 at the Sony Open. Berger ranks 25th in greens in regulation, 14th in driving distance, 26th in Total Strokes Gained, and 25th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green. He is a really solid young player and we think he is going to bounce back strong this week.

Kevin Na– A guy who has quietly been playing extremely well, yet nobody is talking about him, well except for us. We recommended Na last week at the Valspar and he delivered a great T10. This was following up an impressive T9 at the WGC with a very tough field. Before that he had a T61 at Northern Trust, MC at Pebble, T26 WM Phoenix Open, T48 at Humana, and T64 at Sony. In this tournament Na took 14th last year, 4th in 2012, 30th in 2011, 2nd in 2010, and 11th in 2009. We like Na a lot this week and are going to utilize him in alot of balanced lineups in DFS (cash game and tournament)

Shane Lowry- Lowry let some people down in the home stretch of the WGC Cadillac, but he still finished with a T17 in a very strong field. Before that he had a T21 at Pebble Beach and T7 at Farmers since coming over to the PGA Tour in 2015. He does not have any tournament history here but he ranks 28th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 35th in Total Strokes Gained, an 19th in Total Driving. We like consistency and Lowry has been that so we like him this week in all formats.

Justin Thomas- According to our sportsbook odds vs daily pricing tool the most undervalued player this week is Justin Thomas. We like that because we were high on Thomas before we knew he was a screaming deal. He did miss the cut here last year, but we believe he is a different player this year. His current form is T10 last week at Valspar, MC at Honda, T41 at Northern Trust, MC at Farmers, T17 WM Phoenix Open, T7 at Humana, T6 at Sony. He ranks 35th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 32 in Total Strokes Gained, and 27th in driving distance. In a balanced approach this week Thomas works very nicely.

Martin Laird- We recommended Laird last week for Valspar and he delivered a T33, decent but not thrilling. We like him this week as well. Before Valspar Laird had a T7 at The Farmers, T5 at the WM Phoenix Open, and T15 at Humana. He ranks well in many statistical categories including 14th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green, 15th in Total Strokes Gained, 16th in Greens in Regulation, 32nd in Driving Distance, and 5th in Par three birdie or better percentage. Laird’s tournament history here at Bay Hill has been good having made the cut every appearance and taking a 76th, 34th, 36th, WIN, and 74th over his past five appearances. Everything checks out for Laird this week and will be a great option for all formats.

Charles Howell III– A Cut Monster. If you are looking at a balanced team, where you get everybody through the cut, Howell is your guy. Howell rarely jumps into the top 10 (although he did last week at Valspar) but he almost always makes the cut (24 of 29 in 2014 and 10 for 11 this season). Here are his unimpressive, yet impressive numbers: History at Bay Hill- 35th, 45th, 20th, 38th, 21st, 22nd. Current Form- T10 at Valspar, T44 at Honda, T61 at Northern Trust, T5 at Farmers. In a season that is so hard to pick players that will be playing the weekend, roster him and worry about the others.

Shawn O’Hair- Yet again a player who we were targeting in the upcoming weeks tournament gets hot a week early. Now we have to use him as a value rather than a sleeper. O’Hair made a splash last week at the Valspar with a runner up finish. Before that he had been solid with five straight made cuts including a T25 at Honda, T29 at Pebble Beach, T69 at Farmers, and T41 at Humana. But what we were targeting was his very good tournament history including a 10th, 40th, 29th, MC, 21st, 2nd, and 3rd his last 7 appearances. He doesn’t rank well in any statistical categories, but he looks like he may have regained some of the form that he had earlier in his career.

 

Top Sleeper Picks:

 

Vijay Singh- Not too many people outside of Tiger have had much more success in this tournament than the old man. 20 of 21 cuts made and 7 Top 10s. Not too shabby. Not to mention he has played pretty well lately with a T10 last week at Valspar, T12 at Northern Trust, and T34 at Pebble Beach (MC at Honda in between those). His ball striking has been ok, but as with his entire career his putting has been atrocious. But when you are looking for low price options, you cannot have it all.  A good fit for a long shot or a DFS Studs and Scrubs lineup.

Sam Saunders- Another good value according to our Sportsbook Odds vs. Daily Pricing is Sam Saunders. He has played really well in his last two tournaments with a T24 last week at Valspar and T2 at the Puerto Rico Open. He has not played before in this tournament, but he has played his grand-fathers course before. He is a bit of a long shot, but everybody in this price range in DFS is.

Chad Campbell- A solid finish last week with a T24 built upon a solid, but unspectacular T59 at Honda, T49 at Northern Trust, T19 at Farmers, and a T40 at WM Phoenix Open. Those are not bad finishes for somebody at his price range in DFS. His tournament history is much the same solid, but unspectacular 74th, 50th, 42nd, 54th, 22nd, 21st. His statistics are solid, but unspectacular 78th in Strokes Gained Tee-To-Green and 80th in greens in regulation. Do you see a pattern forming here? We are going to predict a solid, but unspectacular performance for Chad Campbell and at his price that would be just fine.

 

Top Fades:

 

Adam Scott- Let the poor guy use his anchor.  Scott is clearly struggling with the flat stick, and not sure if his ball striking can overcome those troubles. In DFS his price does not reflect this issue, so we are going to stay away from Scott until he can show us some consistency on the greens.

 

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