Fantasy Golf Tournament Preview- Porsche Open (European Package)

OVERVIEW

Last week was pretty good for the picks with the exception of the BH An disqualification, but I’m not too upset about it other than it costing me a decent chunk of change; you can’t predict a professional golfer to sign an incorrect scorecard and I’m sure it cost him more money than a lot of us last week so I’ll move on. It was really weird that there were so many 6/6 teams in GPP’s last week (about 30%) so if you didn’t have Ben An in yours you probably ended up on the right end of that DQ. This week we’re back to a weaker field due to many of the Euros heading to Hazeltine for the Ryder Cup. Naturally I’d look to build a few teams that include Martin Kaymer as the home narrative speaks quite true on the European Tour (Luiten won in the Netherlands, Molinari won last week in Italy). Weather-wise we shouldn’t have to worry about anything other than the golfers not taking advantage of optimal conditions. There’s no rain in the forecast, temperatures in the mid to high 60’s and winds shouldn’t be too strong.

TOURNAMENT BACKGROUND

o The Course
• Golf Resort Bad Griesbach
• Par: 71 (four par 5’s – one over 600 yards, four par 3’s – two over 215 yards)
• Yardage: 7,188 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix typically running about 9.5’ on the stimp meter (slow speeds)
o Location: Bad Griesbach, Germany
o Expected scoring: Thongchai won last year with 55/1 odds and a score of -17 playing very solidly for all four days. I’d expect more of the same this week out of the winner. Projected winning score of -16. I also think someone gets a hole in one for a brand new Porsche, which will probably be better than collecting the novelty check at the end of the tournament.
o Past Champions (dating back to 2015):
• 2015: Thongchai Jaidee -17 over Graeme Storm [-16]

KEY STATS TO TARGET
o Strong Emphasis – Driving Distance, Greens in Regulation, Driving Accuracy, Putts per GIR
o Important – Current Form, Ball Striking, Good wedge players, Course History (I wouldn’t put too much stock in this)

 

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STARS:

Thomas Pieters (DK $12,100)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: WIN – 2nd – 4th – 86th – 30th 29th
• Stats: 70.57 – Scoring Avg, 55.44% – DA, 301.63 yards – DD, 68.39% GIR
• Other – Pieters withdrew prior to his last event because of a bee sting, so we’ll want to keep an eye out for the bee index this week in Germany. All jokes aside, Pieters is having a great end of the season and to be completely honest, I’m concerned that he’s teeing it up this week while the rest of his Ryder Cup team heads to North America. This should also concern you, and therefore the play here is to fade Pieters who has not played well in Germany this year (WD, MC). If it doesn’t concern you and you feel the need to play him, I’d think anything over 20% would be considered overweight and would set you up nicely if he makes a run at the title, because the course appears to fit the strengths of his game.

Martin Kaymer (DK $12,000)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 20th – 6th – 15th – 7th – 36th – 13th – 5th – 37th
• Stats: 70.95 Scoring Avg, 59.29% – DA, 290.15 yards – DD, 70.28% – GIR
• Other – So, Kaymer should be on his way to Minnesota for Team Europe, but this is his homeland Open so it makes sense that he’s here. The thought on him, like Pieters, is that his focus is on next week so if you can get passed that thought he makes for a solid play in both formats. For GPP’s I think I’d look to fade both of the top guys because they need to score a ton AND finish either first or second in order to pay off. If you’re playing him in GPP’s you can’t afford another Top 20 finish this week and he needs to continue to avoid bogeys – something he’s been able to do the last two weeks.

Bernd Wiesberger (DK $10,900)
• Course History: MC
• Form: 2nd – 41st – 11th – MC – MC – 11th – 7th
• Stats: 70.89 – Scoring Avg, 58.89% – DA, 294.29 yards – DD, 73.96% – GIR
• Other – The last time I wrote up Bernd I knocked him for not being able to make birdies and what did he do? Ripped off two 66’s before giving back a bunch of strokes on Saturday at the KLM, then rebounding Sunday with a 65 to finish 2nd. So, what do we do with him this week? I’m not sure if I’m willing to trust his form or not yet, but given that he’s played fairly well in Germany (T7 @ BMW Int’l, T4 in 2013) I think he warrants some consideration when building lineups for both formats this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Richard Bland (DK $9,800) gets a huge price bump this week and that’s literally the only thing that’s scaring me off. He’s a part of my core week in and week out, but a price jump of $2,300 is a lot of money when we’re talking about meeting value. The last time he was priced over $9,500 he scored 60 DK Fpts; and didn’t meet value. I’d reserve him for cash games this week and look elsewhere in GPPs. Tommy Fleetwood (DK $9,400) is someone we haven’t heard much about this year, but it’s not because he hasn’t played well. Fleetwood’s form is similar to Alejandro Canizares (see at the bottom of this article) as he placed T16 at the Czech Masters, T49 at the Omega Masters, T10 at the KLM Open, and T7 last week at the Italian Open. He’s trending in the right direction and his off the tee game should fare well in Germany this week. In cash games I’d be fine with playing Thongchai Jaidee (DK $9,100) as the defending champion, but for GPP’s I’d much rather pivot to “early season standout” Rikard Karlberg (DK $9,200). Jaidee hasn’t defended well this year (and it seems like he won a lot last year), but has the knack for making cuts where Karlberg has been off for a while and looks to have regained some of his early season form.

 

VALUE PLAYS:

Lucas Bjerregaard (DK $8,700)
• Course History: 5th
• Form: 20th – 28th – 49th – 63rd – MC – 64th
• Stats: 71.74 – Scoring Avg, 56.49% – DA, 305.34 yards – DD, 71.16% – GIR
• Other – When looking at form, “buy a vowel” (that’s my nickname for him because holy cow, look at all those letters) seems to be trending towards a win by the end of the year, if not sooner. His gradual progression over the past five events is basically textbook trending for someone on the rise and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t putting a little bit of stock in his 5th place finish here last year. If you’re into betting, I’d be putting some money on an each way bet here and for DFS purposes, I really like him as a core play for both cash and GPPs and a lot of that has to do with his ability to BOMB it off the tee and hit greens above 70% of the time.

Bradley Dredge (DK $7,700)
• Tournament History: 36th
• Form: MC – MC – 2nd – 47th – 79th – 29th – MC
• Stats: 70.57 – Scoring Avg, 59.95% – DA, 290.16 yards – DD, 66.77% – GIR
• Other – Dredge was a play we targeted early on this year and I think it might be a good time to start targeting him again. Coming off two missed cuts is a concern for cash games, but he’s made 12/17 cuts this year and his average DK FPts is 64.5, which gets him close enough to meeting value at this price. I don’t blame you if you fade him in cash, but I think with the reduction in price this week he makes for a solid GPP value play.

Padraig Harrington (DK $7,000)
• Tournament History: N/A
• Form: MC – 21st – 64th – 13th – 36th – 21st – 30th – 9th
• Stats: 70.92 – Scoring Avg, 57.65% DA, 285.71 yards – DD, 63.49% GIR
• Other – Harrington missed the cut last week and if not for a late pivot on my behalf, would’ve killed all of my teams off the bat. Why did I pivot when I was so insistent on having him as part of my core? No idea, but my gut called and said it was time to move and I did. Whether it was foresight or not, I really like the way he sets up this week considering his length off the tee and ability to hit greens in regulation. I don’t see myself moving off this week at all.

ALSO CONSIDER – Scott Jamieson (DK $7,700) like many has been on the incline his last four events (7th – 10th – MC – 57th). My guess is that not a lot of people know who he is as he has been middling around the bottom of leaderboards for the better part of the year. Jamieson bombs it off the tee (averages 290.76 yards) and hits greens at around 65% of the time so he’ll just need to continue dropping putts to make sure he hits value this week. Americans haven’t traveled well when coming overseas for a spot start, but Luke List (DK $7,400) seems like a solid fit for this course with his length off the tee. Naturally whether or not he heads home early will depend on his ability to keep the ball out of the water and avoid big numbers. A narrative I’ve been slow to become a part of is the “fellow countryman winner” narrative. That all comes to a screeching halt as I look to plug Matteo Manassero (DK $7,100) into some of my GPP lineups this week coming off Francesco Molinari’s home soil victory last week. For whatever reason, these Euro guys like to confirm any narratives you can think of, and the confidence they gain when their counterparts win has been confirmed several times this year.

 

DEEP DIVERS:

Graeme Storm (DK $6,900)
• Tournament History: 2nd
• Form: MC – 62nd – 36th – 71st – 7th – 32nd – MC
• Stats: – 71.89 – Scoring Avg, 64.22% – DA, 277.80 yards – DD, 66.58% – GIR
• Other – Storm falls here mainly because of his 2nd place finish, but also because of how cheap he is and his form prior to last week. Having only missed two cuts in his last seven events, Storm has been a fairly decent play if not taking into account his price during those events (he was $7,800 when he took 7th, but has been slightly overpriced during that time). His price would be even lower this week if not for the 2nd place finish last year, so even Vegas & DraftKings is aware of the course history here, albeit an extremely small sample size. If you’re trying to stack some guys at the top into a cash lineup and need the salary relief, I wouldn’t be too worried about using Storm.

Magnus A Carlsson (DK $6,800)
• Tournament History: 12th
• Form: 68th – MC – 29th – MC – 32nd – 29th – 38th
• Stats: 71.56 – Scoring Avg, 57.33% – DA, 284.22 yards – DD, 70.94% – GIR
• Other – We took some time apart, I played other golfers and unlike Rachel Green I’m willing to accept his apology and let him back into my life. I’d feel more comfortable with this decision if he were notching Top 25’s, but with that would come an inflated price range so I’ll take what I can get. Bombing it off the tee is a premium especially on the Euro Tour and Mags does that as well as hit greens in regulation so the putting variance should “regress to the mean” and he’ll start scoring more often. I won’t be playing him in cash, but you can bet your aspirin he’ll be on a chunk of my GPP teams this week.

ALSO CONSIDER – Chase Koepka (DK $6,700) has shown us that he’s got skills and should be someone to keep an eye on when he gets to the PGA Tour finishing 19th in his Euro Tour debut at the Czech Masters. We don’t have much data on him, but he fought like hell to make the cut and turned in a pretty solid weekend making 17 birdies total, so he’s got the upside like his older brother Brooks that we like. Speaking of young guns, University of Illinois standout Charlie Danielson (DK $6,800) made the cut in his European Tour debut last week making 13 birdies and more importantly not making any doubles or worse and paying off his $6,500 price tag. I think we can expect more of the same this week and would even consider him in cash games as he’s made the cut in every non-major event this year.

 

GPP PLAYS:

Alejandro Canizares (DK $10,100)
• Course History: 24th
• Form: 7th – 4th – 24th – 8th – 45th
• Stats: 71.00 – Scoring Avg, 60.61% – DA, 274.92 yards – DD, 63.26% – GIR
• Other – I was a bit late to the Alejandro party last week, but being late is better than never as I was able to include him as a core play in my GPP lineups last week before lock and he paid off nicely with a 7th place finish. His form over the last two months is an anomaly for a European player of his caliber, at least from what we’ve seen from others in his range, but cannot be ignored. If you missed out on him last week, don’t let it happen again this week.

Chris Hanson (DK $7,300)
• Course History: N/A
• Form: 20th – 8th – 18th – 76th – MC – 70th
• Stats: 71.71 – Scoring Avg, 58.98% – DA, 291.79 yards – DD, 67.35% – GIR
• Other – Having a good core in GPPs is pertinent when making multiple lineups and for the past few months, Hanson has been part of my core in GPPs and its time you start taking advantage of this as well (if you haven’t already). Ownership percentages over the past few months have been fairly low, mostly because casual fans don’t know who he is and I expect that to continue again this week as he has no course history to speak of. Fire up Hanson this week and thank me later.

ALSO CONSIDER – Scott Hend (DK $9,600) missed the cut last week after two top fives and finished 4th here last year. The price is scary considering how volatile he is as a euro tour golfer, but that’s why he’s highlighted down here in the GPP only section and not up above with his expensive counterparts. Daniel Im (DK $6,700) has exceeded the price that he’s at this week in three of his last four events. He was priced as high as $7,000 at the KLM where he scored 71.5 DK Fpts, so there’s little concern here for me that Im won’t be able to pay off. I’d expect extremely low ownership percentage on a player who’s made his last five cuts including two Top 20’s. If I’m going to write-up Manassero for the fellow countryman narrative, I can’t leave off the brother of last week’s winner Edoardo Molinari (DK $6,400). Eddy aka “The Bad Molinari” was in the middle of a hefty NINE consecutive made cuts streak until last week. Maybe the thought of being able to cry in a bowl of homemade soup was enough to soften the blow, but I think he rebounds nicely. Of course, his biggest issue – length off the tee, will probably keep most players away from him this week.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week from the FGI team!

– Pari, (@hitthehighdraw)

 

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